Tech Weighs on the Market, Midterms and Inflation Data Around the Corner: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday
These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to another mixed market open with the Tech sector once again taking it on the chin.
1. U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of forces in the Middle East, briefed President Trump Thursday on the state of the Iran war, with a focus on the ongoing naval blockade, according to two U.S. officials. As he did before Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and Operation Epic Fury in February, Trump is pursuing dual tracks — trying to reach a deal to restart peace talks while also preparing for a possible resumption of major combat operations after the midterms. (Axios)
Yet oil prices are once again ticking higher on Friday morning following an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. As we approach the final hours of October trading, Brent crude is on course to finish 13% higher, while WTI is heading for a 15% jump. That has us bracing for the data ISM will publish next week and what it shows about inflation pressures compared to September.
This week, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh commented about the volume of upcoming data and how that will better determine the course of Fed actions. As we saw on Thursday, unsurprisingly, the September PCE data continued the trend of moving in the wrong direction and that looks to continue as more companies announce pricing action to fend off rising costs. We’re wondering if the White House is feeling more pressure to bring the Iran war to a brisk conclusion lest upcoming data shifts expectations for something more than 25-basis point rate hike in December.
2. The tech selloff is intensifying this morning after results from Amazon and Intel compounded worries around the AI trade. Shares of Amazon are down sharply in premarket trading. Earnings were in line with the company’s forecasts—and showed booming growth at the company’s cloud-computing division—but left the market wanting more. Intel, meanwhile, is down nearly 25% premarket after the memory-chip crunch and other hiccups weighed on PC sales. (WSJ)
We’ll have a deeper dive on Amazon’s ($AMZN) Q3 2026 results out shortly, but the shares are being dragged down much the same was the ones for Meta ($META) and Google ($GOOGL) were. The focus is on free cash flow and funding Amazon’s plans to increase its capital spending levels again next year. Also, like what we saw with Google, that is overshadowing Amazon’s AWS delivering the fastest growth in nearly five years and the triple-digit growth in its backlog to $578 billion. While some may say the market may not care about that level of growth, we will keep our eyes trained on technical support levels and look to identify where a bite of AMZN shares and a few others may make sense.
Turning to Intel ($INTC), the weakness in its PC business should not be a surprise to anyone given the comments from memory companies about shifting their capacity to meet AI and data center demand. On the data center front, Intel shared that based on its demand signals, it is the latest company to see chip supply to that market constrained into 2028. The arguable bright spot in Intel’s quarterly results? Intel says its 2026 capex remains on track to be $20 billion and that it expects 2027 capital spending to be up strongly. We’ll add that to comments from Samsung ($SSNLF), SK Hynix ($SKHY), Micron ($MU), Global Foundries ($GFS) and others that keep us bulled up on shares of Applied Materials ($AMAT).
3. Microsoft held a mega bond sale to raise capital, finally joining its rivals in issuing debt for the AI buildout. The world’s largest software company issued $25 billion in debt and was greeted with robust demand, according to reports. Investors requested to buy $115 billion, 4.6 times the amount of bonds available when the deal priced… (Barron’s)
Well, that didn’t take very long following our post earnings comments on Thursday that we, and most likely the market, would want to have greater clarity about how Microsoft ($MSFT) intends to fund its step up in capex spend next year while remaining free cash flow positive. But it’s also the second hyper scaler deal behind the very recent one from Meta ($META) that was also substantially oversubscribed. This tells us there is an appetite for these offerings that more than likely will absorb other ones from Alphabet , Amazon, the upcoming Anthropic IPO and a few others. We’re also thinking this could alter OpenAI’s thoughts about postponing its IPO until 2027.
Our thinking is that, one by one, as these funding concerns are addressed, measured against the multi-year backlogs and visibility from the hyper scalers, chip companies, semi-cap ones and others, Wall Street will use the current pressure on Tech to revisit those companies and their shares. Our intention is to be right there as that happens.
Also, as the recent offerings and prospect for additional ones, are a positive for investment banking fees. That reinforces our recent decision to pick up more shares of Morgan Stanley ($MS) for the Portfolio, and it is leading us to contemplate adding to our other financial holding.
4. Memory stock company Sandisk again posted quarterly revenue and per-share profit well ahead of expectations, but its shares declined, suggesting investors wanted more… For its fiscal first quarter, Sandisk reported adjusted earnings of $49.51 a share on revenue of $11.03 billion, up 378% from a year ago, and well above the adjusted EPS of $46.67 and $10.7 billion revenue Wall Street was expecting… Data center revenue soared 1,682% from a year ago, to $4.8 billion, above analysts’ projections for $3.98 billion, according to FactSet. (Barron’s)
As we said above, the outlook for data center related demand remains strong, and that reflects rising AI adoption and usage. Supporting that view, on Friday morning Capgemini ($CAPMF) CEO Aiman Ezzat said that third-quarter growth beat analyst expectations and outpaced the sector, with demand now concentrated in overhauling clients’ data systems to adapt their business to AI. We’ll continue to use data points like that to leverage the food chain perspective and connect the dots.
5. Binance suspended transactions Thursday as the exchange investigates the biggest cyber heist in history. “It does look like a hack on Binance,” Changpeng Zhao, Binance’s founder, said in a post on the social-media platform X. “User funds are safe.” Binance said late Thursday that the hack totaled around $6.3 billion… As cybersecurity researchers tallied up the damage following the heist, they were quick to notice that it dwarfed any previous incident of its kind… The previous record for biggest cyber heist was set in 2025, when North Korea-linked hackers stole $1.5 billion from crypto exchange Bybit. (WSJ)
Suspended transactions, including all deposits and withdrawals. That’s a sharp reminder for how cyberattacks can hobble a company’s business and compromise its customers. We saw a pullback the last few days in cybersecurity stocks, but the sheer size of the above is reminder that companies will need to pony up to protect their crown jewels. We continue to think all investors should have cybersecurity exposure in their holdings.
6. Investors should get ready for changes in Washington. President Donald Trump’s thin congressional majority is on the ropes, with Democrats needing to pick up just four House seats and four Senate seats in the Nov. 3 midterms to secure power on the Hill. While the outcome of the elections isn’t a foregone conclusion, as of this writing Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to take control of at least one chamber of Congress. Bettors on prediction market Kalshi give them 91% odds of taking control of the House and a 65% shot at the Senate. If either chamber of Congress flips blue, Republicans’ legislative agenda would face major obstacles, and companies from across industries might be impacted. (Barrons)
While past performance is not a reliable predictor of future investment returns, since 1930, midterms resulting in a Republican president and Democratic Congress have produced average S&P 500 gains of 15% in the 12 months following the election, compared with a 10% decline when they produce a Republican president and Congress. When Congress splits, the S&P 500’s average gain rises to 23%. Political gridlock isn’t necessarily bad for investors.
That alone gives us reason to follow next week’s midterm elections closely. From trade and energy policy to challenges to deregulatory efforts, as the returns come in, we’ll assess the changing landscape and what could come of it.
7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Employment Cost Index (Q3 2026), Chicago PMI (October).
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – AbbVie ($ABBV), AutoNation ($AN), BP ($BP), Capri Holdings ($CPRI), Chevron ($CVX), Colgate-Palmolive ($CL), Dominion Energy ($D), Exxon Mobil ($XOM), General Dynamics ($GD), Lear ($LEA), Piper Sandler ($PIPR), Sensient ($SXT).
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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMAT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MS, MSFT and MU.
