Netflix Lowers Guidance and I Call More B.S. in the Business Media

Fan fave Netflix ($NFLX) materially reduced forward guidance after the close of trading — and its shares are trading -$4 (or -6%) in premarket trading. 

Here is the company’s release:  FINAL-Q3-26-Shareholder-Letter.pdf

Netflix revenues hit a record $12.9 billion in Q3, up 12% YoY. This was the slowest revenue growth rate since Q3 2023. Net Income of $3.7 billion was up 44% YoY. Operating margins moved up to a record 34.6%. The stock was down 45% over the past year heading into earnings. $NFLX pic.twitter.com/oB01SlmzEK

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 20, 2026

Netflix vs. You Tube

This tracks. I watch something on YouTube every day. Netflix is a dormant subscription for me.

YouTube has very low costs of content creation. Netflix has $14B of debt that has financed their content library.

Another lesson in the halls of mismatching assets and liabilities?… pic.twitter.com/b0KMkkVeuI

— Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) October 20, 2026

From my Diary yesterday afternoon and last night on Netflix:

My View on Netflix

Repeating for emphasis, I would not bottom fish in Netflix (NFLX).

I expect in line-to-better 2Q2026 results but a possible lower forward guidance as margins are pressured.

From last month:

Netflix Is Too Low to Short and Too High to Buy

I would continue to avoid buying (and “bottom fishing”) in Netflix (NFLX) for the reasons I have previously mentioned:

* Netflix has nearly saturated the domestic market (as well as many other developed countries).  These markets are significantly more profitable than the non developed arena.

* Future Netflix sales/profit growth will come from developing country markets that provide substantially less revenue (and income) per subscriber. 

* Netflix’s original content programming has been unspectacular over the last 12 months (or more) — and existing content has suffered.

In the past I have been short NFLX, but it is no longer priced as an attractive short. 

Position: None   

BY Doug Kass · Sep 22, 2026, 1:50 PM EDT

Position: None 

BY Doug Kass · Oct 20, 2026, 4:09 PM EDT

Post Script:

Netflix, according to AI, was among the most recommended equities of the panelists on the “Show:” But viewers, in light of no timestamping or memorializing of recommendations, probably have no clue.

As I seem to be doing with ever greater regularity, I will be taking a time out on X (could last a few days, a few weeks or more – I frankly have no idea how long I will be off Twitter. I won't even be looking at my Twitter feed, thread and timeline):
1. My criticism of @CNBC is…

— Dougie Kass (@DougKass) October 14, 2026

Though, as seen by my tweet above, I have stopped using X as a forum for my constructive criticism, I have a clue. Here is a recent recommendation of Netflix by one of the more particularly smug panelists seen on the Noon Show:

Trade Tracker: Steve Weiss buys more Netflix

We will likely never hear the name (Netflix) again from this particular panelist — or any of the others.  As night follows day none of the panelists have modelled Netflix, spoken to management (and its competitors) or have performed any serious analysis. 

Images and franchises are polished by panelists showing successful investment recommendations and not their conspicuous and frequent investment boners.

Instead the shows and panelists will likely all discuss SpaceX ($SPCX) today (whose shares are up by 6% after their EPS release)..

Position: None

• Category: Daily Diary
• Tag: NFLX, SPCX