Tech Looks to Rebound, But Earnings Will Determine If it Sticks: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Monday
These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to mixed market open later on Monday morning.
1. Oil prices were down early Monday, with Brent crude, the international standard, falling 2.5% to $107.16 per barrel and benchmark U.S. crude dropping 2.2% to $96.84 per barrel… But despite Mr. Trump’s controversial efforts to ease energy costs for Americans, oil prices have remained much higher compared to before the Iran war, due in large part to the ongoing risks to the supply chain caused by the crisis in the Middle East. (CBS News)
Brent futures fell 1.8% to around $107 a barrel, following US President Donald Trump’s decision to waive some sanctions on Russia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday the president would take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact of such a move. At the same time, the benchmark 10-year yield fell to 5.085%. Meanwhile, Iran reported another tanker had hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, while the cost of shipping and insurance was keeping oil prices for actual delivery a lot higher. (Reuters)
Those factors are leading to a rebound in equity futures on Monday morning, but we have a big week of earnings ahead of us, with a sea of reports that includes 79 S&P 500 constituents. Included in that bunch will be Meta ($META), SpaceX ($SPCX), Tesla ($TSLA) and IBM ($IBM). As those results come in, the market will start to assess consensus expectations that call for 29% year-over-year EPS growth for the S&P 500 in Q3 2026 and 28.6% in the current quarter. Given what we’ve seen with energy and related prices as well as other drivers of inflation, margins will be one of the areas of our focus and what that means for year-over-year gains in operating profit and net income.
2. Global food inflation is poised to accelerate in the coming months and persist well into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies, putting additional pressure on vulnerable consumers… In Indonesia, rice prices have already jumped to record highs amid forecasts of delayed rains, while the cost of bread in Egypt has risen by a quarter and sugar prices in India hit an all-time high as the weakest monsoon in over a decade curbed production. “All this has put considerable pressure on the system,” said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). “We will see a bigger impact towards the end of the year, at the beginning of next year and potentially throughout next year.” (Reuters)
The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 136.0 points in September 2026, up 2.0 points from its revised August level and more than 5.7% year over year. Below the headline figure, the components for cereals, vegetable oils and sugar were up 17%, 18% and almost 15% compared to year-ago levels. The above suggests food inflation will remain in place and potentially accelerate further, weighing on spending, especially for more cash-strapped consumers, and margins for those companies that count them as key inputs.
It’s also another reason for the market to see more than just one rate hike by the Fed in the coming quarters. Between now and June 2027, the market is penciling in three 25-basis point rate hikes, but much of that will hinge on what happens with energy and related prices in the coming months.
3. Microsoft has pulled out of a deal to lease computing capacity from UK start-up Nscale after it emerged that the neocloud’s Essex data centre would be unlikely to have a power supply until after 2030. The US technology giant has cancelled its agreement over the Loughton site, which is no longer expected to be connected to the grid this year as planned, according to a person familiar with the matter… Nscale is one of several companies including CoreWeave and Nebius seeking to capitalise on demand for computing capacity fuelled by the AI boom… Anthropic could also walk away from its $45bn deal with Nscale if the group does not hit financing or delivery timelines for its major project in West Virginia. (FT)
Nscale Ltd. is facing opposition to the valuation target it’s pursuing in its initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter, after a series of market setbacks for artificial intelligence companies. The Nvidia Corp.-backed data center developer has been seeking an IPO valuation of about $30 billion, the people said. A cohort of investors have lately urged that a valuation in the $16 billion to $19 billion range would be more likely to find favor with buyers, in light of factors including the implosion of Australian AI data center company Firmus’ IPO plan, some of the people said. (Bloomberg)
The above is not only a sharp reminder of the power constraints impacting the data center buildout, but it’s one that also keeps us bullish on the Portfolio’s Eaton ($ETN) position. As far as concern over AI adoption and usage, the consumption of tokens points to both continuing. OpenRouter, a startup that helps developers route requests to various AI models, puts the weekly rate at 172 trillion tokens as of last week, up from 46.7 trillion at the end of June. That implies data center capacity and AI infrastructure demand to address that continued adoption and expanding usage remains. Earnings later this week from Meta ($META) and SpaceX ($SPCX) will help the market get its hands around those figures as well as bring an update on data center capex plans.
In terms of potentially revised IPO valuation targets for Nscale and Anthropic, we will continue to monitor as it relates to potential investment banking fees for the Portfolio’s financial holdings as well as investments made by Nvidia ($NVDA) and hyperscalers.
4. Apple on Friday said its foldable iPhone Duo had seen “nothing short of extraordinary” demand, as the device sold out on the company’s website until next year within hours of going on sale… Apple had originally promised delivery of the Duo by October 23, but within hours of orders opening, delivery times through Apple’s website had slipped into late January. US mobile carriers also saw delivery times for new orders pushed back.
On Friday, we increased our price target for Apple ($AAPL) shares to $375, and we suspected others across Wall Street would make similar moves. With the long lead times, our thinking is demand for Apple’s other new iPhone models — the 18 Pro and Pro Max — are likely to perk up as well, especially given their lower price tags.
5. As part of the examination of the draft social security financing bill (PLFSS) for 2027, the National Assembly’s social affairs committee adopted amendment no. AS1601 tabled by Green Party MP Nicolas Thierry. The text provides for a ban, starting from the 1ster January 2027, the sale and offering of tobacco to people born on or after January 1st January 2009, including when they reach adulthood. This provision, if definitively adopted, will establish a permanent ban on tobacco purchases for the generations concerned, in addition to the ban already applicable to minors. (GST)
Total legal tobacco sales volume in mainland France reached 30,165 tons through official tobacconist networks in 2025, generating an overall turnover of 18.4 billion euros that year. Other figures peg smoking among French adults between 25% and 26%. If you’re an investor in tobacco companies such as British Tobacco ($BTI), Imperial Brands ($IMBBY) or Philip Morris International ($PM), you’ll want to follow this as well as dig into management’s comments about this when they report in the coming weeks.
6. Over the past couple of weeks, a cybersecurity researcher watched as a Chinese-speaking hacker broke into websites belonging to more than 100 companies, including farm equipment maker Deere, home appliance company SharkNinja and engine manufacturer Cummins (CMI.N). Yet the hacker did almost none of the work. The cybercriminal instead outsourced the hacking spree almost entirely to artificial intelligence, tasking AI agents with spending hours autonomously probing and breaking into targeted sites, according to Snorre Fagerland, principal threat researcher at the cybersecurity company NorForge. (Reuters)
Ahold Delhaize’s Albert Heijn, the largest supermarket chain in the Netherlands, will not resume online deliveries before Thursday at the earliest, according to a message in its app on Monday, extending to at least 11 days an outage caused by what the company has called a “cybersecurity incident”. (Reuters)
Those two items capture why we continue to see cybersecurity not only as a growth market but as one that should be a part of every investor’s portfolio. Despite those and other signals, shares of the First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF ($CIBR) have fallen more than 10% in the last few days and that has us revisiting our current price target for that position as well as our current Two rating.
7. Economic data today per TipRanks: NAHB Housing Market Index (October).
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Cleveland Cliffs ($CLF), Fifth Third ($FITB). PM – Crown ($CCK), Steel Dynamics ($STLD).
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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AAPL, CIBR, ETN and NVDA.
