A Chill Blows Through Wall Street
Summer fun has ended as we enter a seasonally tough month, a potentially volatile October, uncertainty in Iran, and an escalating trade fight with Canada.
Fighting Flares Up Again in Iran, Warsh Turns Hawkish, Treasury Yields Climb
The U.S. hits Iran over the weekend in renewed fighting and Fed chair vows to go after inflation; also, let’s check the week ahead.
No Time to Let Your Guard Down
As tensions with Iran escalate, major domestic equity market indexes trade close to all-time highs, and oil rises, you best be ready.
I’m a Little ‘Fed’ Up …
I’d like to respectfully disagree with the Cleveland Fed president, make a few points about inflation, and take a look at Iran.
That’s a Wrap
Another day, another record? Sort of.
The S&P 500 managed to set a new all-time intraday record high as well as an all-time record closing high. Why? Inflation, or the lack thereof.
For the month of July, headline PPI printed at +0.0% month over month versus the +0.2% consensus and at +4.7% year over year versus expectations for a +4.9% print. At the core (ex. food and energy), PPI hit the tape at +0.2% month over month versus +0.3% consensus and at +4.2% year over year, even with consensus about down from +4.7% in June.
As it now becomes all but impossible for the Fed to raise short-term rates any time soon, at least not backed by logic, the yield paid by the U.S. two-year Treasury note contracted by 5 BPS to 4.15%, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year note dropped 4 BPS to 4.65%. This pushed equities higher.
The benchmark S&P 500 closed +0.6%, as the Nasdaq Composite gained +0.8%. Eight of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs closed in the green, led by Communication Services ($XLC). Materials ($XLB) led the losers.
Workday ($WDAY) led the S&P 500 higher on takeover rumors. It was the memory trade that ruled the day, though, as SanDisk ($SNDK), Micron ($MU) and Western Digital ($WDC) all had nice days. Cisco Systems ($CSCO) took a beating after posting disappointing guidance along with what looked, otherwise, to be a pretty decent earnings report.
Have a great evening, gang. Dougie will be out again tomorrow and, God willing, I will be back to work through the day with you all. Now, go get some grub and maybe work out a little. Sarge out.
Positions: Long SNDK, MU equity.
Trump’s Ultimatum, Manufacturing Cranks Up, Palantir Pops
Trump means it … this time … on Iran; U.S. manufacturing churns higher, and Palantir? Wow!
SanDisk Slashed, Micron Mashed; Jobs Day Forecast; And Are You at Your Desk?
Let’s look at the beating taken by memory stocks yesterday, the shot at a September rate cut, jobs day , and how July 4 week used to work for traders.
Peace Sells … And the Markets Are Buying It
Stocks in Asia and Europe get boost as markets appear to believe the Iran peace agreement. Also, let’s check the S&P’s chart and the week ahead.
Wall St. Cashes Out, Peace Deal Crashes Out, Semiconductors Smashed Up
Let’s check the fighting with Iran, why Wall St. is cashing out, how far the semis fell, and why inflation numbers are more nuanced than they appear.
Wall St. Takes Hit on Iran Fire, SpaceX Takes Off, Middle-Class ‘Struggle’
Iran ceasefire looks near collapse; SpaceX valuation at $1.75 trillion; Beige Book sees some in middle-income bracket ‘struggling more.’