The AI Selloff Looks Like a Bear Trap. Follow the Bottleneck Instead.
One stop remains in our AI series, and it’s the one folks rarely think about.
As the Chatter Turns Back to Broadening Out, Are We About to Be Overbought?
Answering readers’ questions about the bonds and Nasdaq.
Yes, We Are Oversold. But We Are Also Complacent.
The problem is that people just don’t think the market can fall more than 5-10%. Which means that it can.
How to Buy the Uber Dip With a Covered-Call Strategy
Channeling Peter Lynch to invest in the rideshare giant.
U.S. and Iran, Deal or No Deal? 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Wednesday
ISM’s Inflation data, SpaceX spending and Foxconn’s July revenue among the headlines shaping the market today/
Taiwan Semi Ups Spending Plans: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Thursday
War escalation, oil crunch prospects, Uber targeting Delivery Hero, and other headlines moving stocks this morning.
Dogs With Fleas
* Uber ($UBER)
* Disney ($DIS)
* Netflix ($NFLX)
Position: None
Examining ‘Group Stink’
* And fading it…
I don’t own and am currently short (and have been recently short C, JPM, GS, MS, UBER, NFLX, homebuilders, etc.) some of the most consensus sectors.
I am long some of the most non-consensus sectors.
Consensus Longs:
* Memory: SanDisk ($SNDK), Micron ($MU), Intel ($INTC), AMD ($AMD), Applied Materials ($AMAT) (“it’s different this time”)
* Value Tech: Adobe ($ADBE), Oracle ($ORCL), ServiceNow ($NOW) and Nvidia ($NVDA)
* Tech With Biggest Moat: Apple ($AAPL)
* Value Industrial: Caterpillar ($CAT)
* Best Overall Value: Homebuilders
* Streaming: Netflix ($NFLX)
* Autonomous: Uber ($UBER)
* Entertainment: Disney ($DIS)
* Financials: JPMorgan ($JPM), Citigroup ($C), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Morgan Stanley ($MS)
* Frontier Exposure “For The Long Haul”: SpaceX ($SPCX)
Non-Consensus Longs:
* Cannabis: $MSOS, $VRNOD, $TRLV, $GTBIF, $GLAS
* Private Equity: Apollo ($APO), Blackstone ($BX), KKR ($KKR)
* Consumer Staples: Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), PepsiCo ($PEP), Procter & Gamble ($PG)
Positions:
Long MSOS (L), VRNOD (S), TRLV (S), GTIBF (S), GLAS (S), APO (S), BX (S), KKR (S), KMB (S), PEP (S), PG (S)
Short SPCX (VS), SNDK (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS), AMAT (VS), AMD (VS), CAT (VS)
Apple… Sis Boom Huh?
Yesterday CNBC’s Halftime show universally applauded Apple ($AAPL). The cheerleaders were led by an uber confident (oops, another poor-performing investment recommendation ($UBER)!) and assertive (and even sometimes yelling) panelist (Josh Brown), signaling that Apple’s shares are the premier investment in the Mag 7:
Josh Brown likes this ‘sleeping giant’ AI play and Magnificent 7 member
Here is a contrary view (something that is rarely considered in the business media that worships at the altar of price) — focused on the company’s valuation at 10.4x sales (the highest in history) and that, fundamentally, Apple’s sales have been roughly flat for five year:
Caveat emptor.
Position: None