Don’t Expect Much of an Oversold Rally With Sentiment So Complacent
The best rallies set up from a place of fear. So, although stocks may be nearing oversold, until investors are fearful, we can’t expect much from a bounce.
Despite Hot PPI, Yields Fall, Sparking Broad Rally Held Back By Tech
Stocks recovered from early losses as Tech bounced and the largest drop in 10- and 30-year yields in over a year saw five sectors gain over 1%.
PPI Shows Red Hot Inflation Pressure: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Thursday
September Retail Sales surprise to the upside, takeaways from Anthropic’s meeting, and other headlines moving the market this morning.
Buckle Up for a Busy Day!
With a few hours to go until the market open, S&P futures are in the red but not as much as the Nasdaq futures, thanks to renewed concerns over, you guessed it, AI spending.
That comes even though Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) bested top and bottom-line expectations for its September quarter and guided current quarter revenue to $52.3 billion-54.3 billion vs. $50.22 billion FactSet consensus. During its earnings call, we’ll look to see what Taiwan Semi says about capacity utilization and incremental capital spending to address it.
We’ll also have more to say on Taiwan Semi’s revenue mix during the September quarter, but odds are it strongly favored AI and data center, and we say this following IDC’s findings that Q3 2026 smartphone shipments fell 22% year over year. IDC now expects any recovery in growth won’t come until 2028, at the earliest.
And here’s the standout comment from IDC as if a 22% shipment drop wasn’t enough: “Memory costs have surged approximately 350% since last year and are still rising, creating substantial pressure on vendor margins and shipments. The worst is yet to come.”
With that all as a setup, we’ve got a busy morning with quarterly results from:
BNY Mellon ($BNY)
Charles Schwab ($SCHW)
Ericsson ($ERIC)
First Horizon ($FHB)
Manpower ($MAN)
PNC ($PNC)
U.S. Bancorp ($USB)
In addition to the weekly jobless claims data, we also have September PPI and Retail Sales out at 8:30 AM ET as well as some regional Fed indices.
It’s going to be a whirlwind of potential tailwinds and headwinds, but here at the Diary we’ll do our best to connect the dots and share insights along the way.
Buckle up my friends, we’re going in!
Position: None
Super Intelligence Is Entering Its Third S-Curve. Here’s How to Profit.
SI will destroy and create major economic shifts. Let’s discuss the emerging investment opportunities.
Rotational Pressure Prevents Breakout Momentum From Developing
Fallout from Meta’s Muse is hitting the financial sector.
Tech And Small Caps Lead Tuesday
A sixth day of gains for semiconductors drives the Nasdaq-100 to its first record since June while a fifth day of losses for crude boosted small caps
Market Observation: More Narrowing as Financials Stink Up the Joint!
* Apropos to my “Not Broadening” column earlier today…
As the financials go, so goes the market is the “old saying.”
$JPM -$8
$C -$2
$SCHW -$5
$GS -$10
$MS -$4
Well, financials are truly stinking up the joint!
Positions: None
Charles Schwab Gets Boost From Single Stock Futures Update
Single stock futures could change the way traders view individual stocks.
DR Horton Showcases Homebuilder Pain: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Tuesday
Trump’s tariffs, TSM price hikes and other headlines are moving stocks this morning.