A Crack Is Forming Across the Markets
Mortgage rates are hovering around 7%, the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury ended last week at 5% and the conflict with Iran still has no end in sight.
The Sun Rises on Wall Street
We didn’t expect the kind of market strength we saw on Thursday as yields and oil fell. The big question now: Can it keep up?
Investors Are Out of Position — And That Is Supporting the Indexes
Why being wrong-footed makes for a market that is harder to knock down. Plus, the most underappreciated development this week.
After the Fed, Let’s Return to Regularly Scheduled Programming
With the Fed decision out of the way, let’s discuss the market reaction, energy prices, the Japanese yen, ‘Cheap Chinese Compute’, Space, and how to position now.
Fed Delivers Expected Rate Hike. More on the Way?
The September Set of Economic Projections suggests one more rate hike before year-end.
Stocks See Modest Gains Ahead of the Fed
A very strong retail sales report along with easing bond yields and oil prices are giving a modest lift to stocks as they await a pivotal FOMC decision.
Bessent’s Big ‘Bazooka’ Not Big Enough, Trump’s $5G Promise, Debt Woes
Let’s see why the $6B repurchase plan let down investors and bond traders, check the math on Trump’s $5G ‘dividend’ promise, and … a Nvidia probe.
Hawkish Warsh Tells Wall Street to Beat It
The man was clear. His concern is inflation and Main Street.
2 Significant Positive Events Aren’t Enough to Fix the Market
A Treasury intervention and 170% move in Moderna produced only a 0.2% gain in the S&P 500.
When Thinking About Rate Hikes, Something Just Doesn’t Compute
Let’s discuss a base case for rates, market ‘fallacies’ and my outlook across the yield curve.