Examining ‘Group Stink’

And fading it…

I don’t own and am currently short (and have been recently short C, JPM, GS, MS, UBER, NFLX, homebuilders, etc.) some of the most consensus sectors.

I am long some of the most non-consensus sectors.

Consensus Longs:

* Memory: SanDisk ($SNDK), Micron ($MU), Intel ($INTC), AMD ($AMD), Applied Materials ($AMAT) (“it’s different this time”)

* Value Tech: Adobe ($ADBE), Oracle ($ORCL), ServiceNow ($NOW) and Nvidia ($NVDA)

* Tech With Biggest Moat: Apple ($AAPL)

* Value Industrial: Caterpillar ($CAT)

* Best Overall Value: Homebuilders

* Streaming: Netflix ($NFLX)

* Autonomous: Uber ($UBER)

* Entertainment: Disney ($DIS)

* Financials: JPMorgan ($JPM), Citigroup ($C), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Morgan Stanley ($MS) 

* Frontier Exposure “For The Long Haul”: SpaceX ($SPCX)

Non-Consensus Longs:

* Cannabis: $MSOS, $VRNOD, $TRLV, $GTBIF, $GLAS

* Private Equity: Apollo ($APO), Blackstone ($BX), KKR ($KKR)

* Consumer Staples: Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), PepsiCo ($PEP), Procter & Gamble ($PG)

Positions:

Long MSOS (L), VRNOD (S), TRLV (S), GTIBF (S), GLAS (S), APO (S), BX (S), KKR (S), KMB (S), PEP (S), PG (S)

Short SPCX (VS), SNDK (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS), AMAT (VS), AMD (VS), CAT (VS)

 

Short-Term Tactics

* I was very active on the short side yesterday

On the last day of trading for the month and quarter, S&P futures rose as high as +65 handles in what seemed like an algo-driven markup — and closed about +41 handles (as it dropped about 20 handles in the last few minutes).

This morning S&P futures are -30 handles.

Ignored throughout Tuesday was a sharp rise in yields:


Observation

TLT low of the day, yields at the high of the day as quarter-end markups started early in the equity markets.

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 30, 2026, 1:09 PM EDT


As posted in my Diary, fearful of a quarter-end mark-up, I shorted equities more aggresssively yesterday — but on a scale higher (giving the market a wider berth) than I have in several weeks:

* Most notably, on strength and steadily through the day I moved from very small sized to small sized to medium sized index shorts ($SPY and $QQQ).

* I put on three tranches of my high-octane tech short basket yesterday. I can’t remember when I did so aggressively in the past but it reflects my view of the exceptionally poor reward vs. risk on the market darlings.

* I added meaningfully to my $GRNY short and added to $JOET short.

* On the buy side I added to $PEP and $PG, which should prosper in a correction.

* With the rescheduling of cannabis hearings going so well, I added to individual weed longs. The group looks like it might finally be breaking out of a range.

Position: Long PEP (S), PG (S), VRNOD (S), GLAS (S), GTBIF (S), TRLV (S), CURLD (VS); Short SPY (M), QQQ (M), GRNY (M), JOET (S), High-Beta Tech Basket