The Week Ahead: Can Big Tech Earnings Save the Day?
Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report alongside an FOMC decision and a packed week of economic data.
The Mags Are Ugly on a Day With Good Breadth
Why was the market down on a day that breadth was positive? It’s that either/or market again.
Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning
Upside
– $TCRT +25.0% (extends its surge after closing a PAH-focused biotech acquisition and securing about $350M of financing)
– $NCPL +19.0% (regains Nasdaq minimum-bid compliance)
– $SITC +18.0% (declares a $3.00 special cash distribution after an asset sale and plans to delist from the NYSE)
– $FFR +9.0% (launches the $2,490 FF Nova humanoid robot and outlines a proposed roughly $200M robotics combination)
– $ASM +6.5% (Roth/MKM upgrades to Buy from Neutral and raises its target to $8)
– $SMTC +4.0% (raises Q3 sales, operating-margin and EPS outlooks at its data-center analyst day)
– $TSLA +3.0% (unveils a redesigned Roadster featuring rocket-style thrusters)
– $STLA +3.0% (better-than-feared Q3 shipment update showed consolidated volumes down just 1% year over year)
– $FRO +3.0% (tanker shares rebound as geopolitical disruption continues to support shipping rates)
– $RBRK +3.0%, $VRNS +2.5% (cybersecurity names rise after VRNS agreed to a $6.3B all-cash acquisition)
– $NOK +2.5%, $AAOI +2.0% (networking and optical names gain after SMTC raised its data-center outlook)
Downside
– GUTS -53.0% (REMAIN-1 met its six-month co-primary endpoint, but 5.1% weight regain versus 8.2% for sham and a still-pending one-year co-primary fell short of elevated expectations)
– $JAGX -29.0% (special preferred-stock dividend was paid, with each preferred share set to convert into five common shares on November 2, intensifying dilution concerns)
– $MDXH -17.0% (suspends FY revenue guidance after preliminary Q3 revenue of about $22.7M)
– $TLK -15.0% (Indonesia ADR slumps after a warning that the country could face an emerging-market index downgrade)
– $CRWV -5.0%, $IREN -3.5%, $NBIS -2.5% (AI-infrastructure names extend their selloff on debt-funded buildout and profitability concerns)
– $TRV -4.0% (Q3 beat with lower-than-expected catastrophe losses, but shares sell the news after elevated expectations)
– $SKHY -3.5%, $SNDK -2.5%, $MU -2.5%, $ALAB -2.5%, $WDC -2.0%, $AMD -2.0% (chip and storage names weaken as the AI trade de-risks amid higher-rate concerns)
– $IONQ -2.5%, $ASTS -2.5% (speculative long-duration growth names weaken as rate-hike expectations rise)
– $MSTR -2.5%, $HUT -2.0%, $CRCL -1.5% (crypto-linked shares trade lower amid broad risk-off positioning)
As the Chatter Turns Back to Broadening Out, Are We About to Be Overbought?
Answering readers’ questions about the bonds and Nasdaq.
Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning
Upside
– $LPCN +40% (Health Canada approves TLANDO for testosterone replacement therapy)
– $APUS +9.4% (extends a high-volume rally tied to the BlockAssure agreement to build and operate the AssureChain insurance network)
– $PENG +4.3% (Q4 beat and FY27 sales and EPS outlook topped prior guidance and Street expectations on accelerating AI-infrastructure demand)
– CNQ +1.6%, APA +1.2%, OXY +1.0%, COP +1.0% (oil producers rise as crude climbs back above $100 a barrel)
Downside
– $CRBU -42% (launches a strategic-alternatives review, discontinues two allogeneic CAR-T programs and plans substantial workforce reductions)
– $BULL -30% (bipartisan House panel report says structural China ties pose national-security and US-user-data risks)
– $STM -5.4%, $TER -3.0%, $ASML -3.0%, $AMAT -2.7%, $LRCX -3.0%, $MU -2.8% (chip stocks fall in the risk-off technology tape as oil-driven inflation concerns pressure rate-sensitive growth shares)
– $BMNR -5.0%, $CRCL -4.0%, $MSTR -3.8%, $COIN -3.1%, $HOOD -3.0% (crypto-linked stocks fall as digital-asset prices weaken)
– $AAOI -4.8%, $CIEN -3.8%, $MTSI -3.0%, $COHR -3.2%, $GLW -3.3% (AI-networking and optical winners pull back after sharp recent rallies as technology exposure is reduced)
– $DB -4.7%, $SAN -4.2%, $HSBC -3.9%, $NWG -3.5%, $BCS -3.3% (European-bank ADRs fall as oil-driven inflation and sovereign-bond stress deepen fiscal concerns, with UK lenders also facing budget-tax fears)
– $STZ -3.9% (quarter beat, but adjusted FY guidance was merely reiterated and beer depletions declined)
– $BE -3.8%, $CEG -3.5%, $EME -1.9% (AI-power and data-center infrastructure winners give back part of recent gains amid the broader risk-off rotation)
Upside, Downside Movers in the A.M.
Upside
– AMOD +108.5% (closed a bitcoin-funded private placement and regained Nasdaq listing compliance)
– NIVF +40.0% (closed an approximately $1.25M public offering)
– SDEV +36.0% (extends Thursday’s surge in the SKY-token treasury name; no clear fresh company-specific catalyst identified)
– TNMG +20.0% (agreed to sell its Japanese business in a $5.5M management buyout)
– $SYNA +15.0%, ON +8.0% (revised merger makes ON’s acquisition of SYNA an all-cash deal at $123 per share)
– $CYPH +8.5%, $FWDI +6.5%, $MSTR +5.0%, $COIN +1.5% (digital-asset treasury and crypto-linked names rise as Bitcoin and major tokens rally)
– $BETR +7.5% (Cantor Fitzgerald upgrades to Overweight from Neutral)
– $XRPN +7.0% (shareholders approved the proposed business combination with Evernorth)
Downside
– $RZAI -21.0% (extends volatile post-direct-listing selling after Thursday’s 29% drop)
– $NXL -20.0% (gives back part of Thursday’s 76% spike following a 10-year Latin American distribution agreement)
– $STX -11.5%, WDC -7.0% (HDD makers fall after Toshiba outlined plans to double capacity and target sharply higher market share)
– $NKE -9.0% (mixed FQ1 as revenue missed and the FY sales outlook implied a surprise steep decline, alongside job cuts and a business reorganization)
– $FICO -8.5%, $EFX -3.5%, $TRU -2.5% (mortgage-credit names fall on a reported FHFA plan requiring lenders to pull data from two credit bureaus instead of three for GSE loans)
– $ASTS -3.5% (B. Riley downgrades to Neutral from Buy)
Tech Leads S&P and Nasdaq to Best Days Since Early August
Tech’s continued rebound along with falling oil prices and Treasury yields drove a powerful rally to start the week.
Don’t Confuse Speculation With a Healthy Turn
When the best-performing stocks on your screen are micro-cap junk and crypto, that is just money chasing action.
Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning
Upside
– $MEDS +30% (litigation settlement is expected to extinguish about $19 million of liabilities and retire 364,099 shares)
– $USDE +17%, $PURR +7.0%, $MSTR +2.8%, $HOOD +2.2% (crypto and tokenization-linked stocks rise as Bitcoin rallies and regulators grant temporary relief for tokenized U.S. stock trading)
– $STUB +6.0% (Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral)
– $GOOGL +2.0%, $GOOG +1.9% (no clear fresh company-specific catalyst identified; unusually strong megacap premarket outperformance)
– $ETSY +1.1% (BTIG upgrades to Buy, citing improved valuation, positive demand tracking and a better cost structure)
Downside
– $XENE -22% (pauses new enrollment in Phase 3 depression trials after a liver-related safety event, overshadowing the focal-seizure NDA submission)
– $AEMD -9.9% (reverses part of the prior-day merger-driven surge; existing holders are expected to own about 4.75% of the combined company)
– $ARRY -4.2% (UBS downgrades to Neutral and flags growing cash preferred-dividend obligations that could pressure free cash flow)
– $NFLX -3.2% (Wells Fargo downgrades to Underweight, citing weakening engagement and a softer original-content slate)
– $NUE -2.3%, STLD -2.1% (steelmakers fall after STLD’s Q3 earnings outlook missed expectations)
– $DLR -2.0% (rate-sensitive stocks fall as Treasury yields edge higher)
Equities Remain Under Pressure As 10-Year Yield Hits 19-Year High
A bounce in AI names is helping offset pressure from a continued rise in bond yields and oil prices.