The Nasdaq closed at a record, and the S&P 500 came within a whisker, as the rally broadened for a second straight session, even as 10 and 30-year yields climbed to their highest close since 2002.
We raised cash early, put some back to work late in the month, locked in gains on Meta and kicked off our quarterly EPS All-Stars reconstitution.
Let’s look at the concentration risks investors shouldn’t be ignoring.
Yields remain in the driver’s seat, with bond shorts at extremes and a light week on the calendar.
During Q3 2026 four equities (stimulated by perceived AI growth opportunities) — $MSFT, $NVDA, $AAPL and $META — added about 300 points to the gain in the S&P index, representing more than 200% of the index’s total gain. The other 496 stocks subtracted approximately 150 points:
Back to AI “concentration” credit risks — specifically that private equity (we remain short $BX, $APO, $OWL and $KKR) is piling into the same AI data center bet:
Carlyle warns private credit is piling into the same AI data center bet
More on depreciation schedules and creative accounting:
Finally, continued AI skepticism from “Moon Alice” — Roger McNamee:
and…
Position: Short BX (VS), KKR (VS), APO (VS), OWL (VS)
An updated look at S&P 500 support levels as we stick to the sidelines.
During a volatile week, we updated the Portfolio’s shopping list, and locked in a sizable tech gain.
We’ve already got a market-relevant impact on tariffs, but what are the other main points of contention as the “G2” gather?
Elite fundamentals, a decade-low multiple, solid technicals, and analyst enthusiasm all point the same way. So why don’t I own more?
