Follow Up to My Opener

Avatar photo Doug Kass on June 22, 2026

The sort of abysmal price action in $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL and $META are EXACTLY the concerns I expressed in my market structure post.

I worry that today’s weakness in the precursor of a market structure event not similar to past disruptions:

The proliferation, popularity and acceptance of leverage products and portfolio concentration in quantitative strategies, margin debt, the options market and leveraged ETFs argue in favor of rising odds of another October 1987 (“Black Monday”) or a 2018 “Volmageddon” (or Vix Bloodbath) event.  

Position: None

Why I Sold AMZN, MSFT

Avatar photo Doug Kass on June 18, 2026

On Wednesday afternoon (near the lows) I established longs in Microsoft ($MSFT) and Amazon ($AMZN). 

I know Amazon reasonably well, not so much Microsoft (though I was prone to buy it based on Bill Ackman’s recent buy (at much higher levels) in his new publicly traded vehicle ($PSUS).

While I have successfully trafficked/traded Amazon and Microsoft on several occasions — my avoidance of the stocks reflected a generally negative view that those two constituents of Mag7 (as with the others) had morphed from a capital light to capital intensive. That metamorphosis has execution risk, increases the likelihood of lower share buybacks and provides less certainty to the profit stream.

As noted in my Diary yesterday and this morning, MAG7 in the aggregate have been awful performers — and have likely been a source of funds to buy memory and semi stocks.

I aggregated sell-side research reports on both companies last night (as I spent some portion of the evening trading ($SPY)/($QQQ) and concluded in the case of MSFT the above challenges are being exacerbated by continued changes in their AI strategy and positioning. Though I am not an expert on Microsoft, from my perch, MSFT’s estimates might be lowered. 

I am not sure, however, why Amazon has been so weak, but I decided to bale on that as well. I plan on continuing to do my research on the name to get more informed and current. 

From Comments Section last night:

Dougie Kass
11h ago

Sold my AMZN $239.88 adn MSFT $383.06

From earlier:

Loaded Up on Microsoft and Amazon

I bought a ton of MSFT at $378.05 and AMZN at $237.01 in the last 15 minutes of the day.

Position: Long MSFT (M), AMZN (M)

By Doug Kass · Jun 17, 2026, 4:03 PM EDT

Dougie Kass
11h ago

I am not sure I understand the after market ramp = s and p futures +64 and nasdaq futues +401

*taking profits in msft and amazn buys

shorting spy $745.81 and qqq  $732.40

Position: None

An MOU, an Evening Rally and Threatening Market Volatility and Industry Rotation

Avatar photo Doug Kass on June 18, 2026

The signing of this memorandum of understanding (which I present without personal comment) has — once again — led to a rally in the futures overnight with S&P futures +65 handles and the Nasdaq +440 handles:

As noted (partially) in the Comments Section I was up throughout the night selling most of my trading longs discussed in my Diary, in addition to selling additional trading long rentals not discussed (too speculative for home gamers). 

Stocks are beginning to move in integers and group rotation is conspicuous.

* The absolute and relative strength/overbought in semis and memory equities are growing more and more extreme — continuing this morning premarket. 

* Financials are catching an amazing bid. 

* But former leaders, Mag 7, are falling flat on their face with fundamental strategic and execution issues plaguing Microsoft ($MSFT) and Meta ($META).  

I will try to get out an opener this morning which discusses the rising possibility of a market “event” owing to market structure.

Position: None