Interest Rates Set to Move Higher for Longer as Inflation Persists
With the AI bubble looking to “jump the shark” and conflict in the Middle East ongoing, the Federal Reserve has little choice.
Examining ‘Group Stink’
* And fading it…
I don’t own and am currently short (and have been recently short C, JPM, GS, MS, UBER, NFLX, homebuilders, etc.) some of the most consensus sectors.
I am long some of the most non-consensus sectors.
Consensus Longs:
* Memory: SanDisk ($SNDK), Micron ($MU), Intel ($INTC), AMD ($AMD), Applied Materials ($AMAT) (“it’s different this time”)
* Value Tech: Adobe ($ADBE), Oracle ($ORCL), ServiceNow ($NOW) and Nvidia ($NVDA)
* Tech With Biggest Moat: Apple ($AAPL)
* Value Industrial: Caterpillar ($CAT)
* Best Overall Value: Homebuilders
* Streaming: Netflix ($NFLX)
* Autonomous: Uber ($UBER)
* Entertainment: Disney ($DIS)
* Financials: JPMorgan ($JPM), Citigroup ($C), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Morgan Stanley ($MS)
* Frontier Exposure “For The Long Haul”: SpaceX ($SPCX)
Non-Consensus Longs:
* Cannabis: $MSOS, $VRNOD, $TRLV, $GTBIF, $GLAS
* Private Equity: Apollo ($APO), Blackstone ($BX), KKR ($KKR)
* Consumer Staples: Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), PepsiCo ($PEP), Procter & Gamble ($PG)
Positions:
Long MSOS (L), VRNOD (S), TRLV (S), GTIBF (S), GLAS (S), APO (S), BX (S), KKR (S), KMB (S), PEP (S), PG (S)
Short SPCX (VS), SNDK (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS), AMAT (VS), AMD (VS), CAT (VS)
A Good Month for KMB
One month ago Kimberly-Clark ($KMB) traded at $93 and is now nearly $111/share.
I have reduced my weighting to very small.
Position: Long KMB (VS)
Key Observation (Part Deux)
Breadth mixed (but sector divergences are wild), trading inconsistent and swinging wildly intraday:
* Despite the evisceration of tech yesterday, there are few tech stocks higher on the day — Google ($GOOGL) (DJIA inclusion), Amazon ($AMZN), Apple ($AAPL)
League leading hitter, Nvidia ($NVDA), has cracked to the downside some fractal support
* Hard reversal lower in financial stocks
* Carnage in the oil patch ($OIH -$13) with oil -$2.65
* Consumer staples are the world’s fair ($KO, $PEP, $PG and $KMB)
* Private equity shares are breaking down (after more redemptions and gates)
* Bitcoin breaks $60k to the downside (remember this was one of the possible catalysts I mentioned to a disrupted market filled with leveraged players)
* Speculative faves $PLTR (don’t investors ever learn?) and $HOOD are breaking down
Position: Long KO (S), PEP (S), PG (S), KMB (S)
Things I Did Today
Here are today’s things:
* Added aggressively (again) to cannabis: $VRNOD at $5.35, $GLASF at $11.80, $GTBIF at $7.12, $TRLV at $8.06 and $MSOS at $4.43.
* Shorted more $JOET at $45.33.
* Repurchased consumer staples: $KMB at $105.15, $KO at $81.01, $PG at $151.37 and $PEP at $142.01.
Position: Long MSOS (L), GLASF (S), GTBIF (S), TRLV (S), KMB (S), KO (S), PG (S), PEP (S), VRNOD (S/M); Short JOET (S)
Getting Bearish
I am increasingly bearish.
I just sold out the balance of my three staples longs:
* ($KMB) $101.92 (+$3.15)
* ($PEP) $148.21 (+$2.51)
* ($PG) $148.05 (+$5.01)
I plan to buy back these positions in a meaningful correction – if we ever get one!
Positions: None.