I covered some $JOET at $44.97 and $GRNY at $27.32.
I’m also adding to $MSOS long and bidding for consumer staples (under the market) — $PEP, $PG, $KMB.
Position: Long MSOS common (VL) and calls (S), PEP (S), PG (S), KMB (S); Short JOET (VS), GRNY (VS).
The consumer products company has paid a dividend for nearly 100 consecutive years.
Stocks continue to leak lower and internal damage is mounting, but downside volume remains relatively contained and investor complacency persists. That’s why a bounce remains likely, even if the bigger warning signs are growing louder.
* Market breadth has improved.
* The Russell is crowing relative to the senior averages.
* Bonds can’t rally.
* Financials can’t hold their gains.
* Many large-cap tech stocks continue to show signs of rolling over.
* It is all $NVDA, all the time.
* On the other hand, consumer non-durables ($KO, $PEP, $PG, $KMB, etc.) are suddenly rallying today after days of weakness.
* The business media is preoccupied with silly data on September weakness. (Another CNBC Blather Survey — there have been nine discussions of this thus far today.)
A sloppy and trendless tape.
Position: Long PG (VS), PEP (VS), KO (VS), KMB (VS)
I am further reducing consumer staples exposure on the strong move today and over the last week — $PEP, $PG, $KMB and $KO.
These stocks have been reasonably good performers and stalwarts in a backdrop of volatility.
The recent advance has reduced the reward vs. risk.
Position: Long PEP (VS), PG (VS), KMB (VS), KO (VS)
What to watch with SpaceX earnings, U.S munition pain point, Duke Energy’s capital plan, and other headlines are moving stocks this morning.
With the AI bubble looking to “jump the shark” and conflict in the Middle East ongoing, the Federal Reserve has little choice.
* And fading it…
I don’t own and am currently short (and have been recently short C, JPM, GS, MS, UBER, NFLX, homebuilders, etc.) some of the most consensus sectors.
I am long some of the most non-consensus sectors.
Consensus Longs:
* Memory: SanDisk ($SNDK), Micron ($MU), Intel ($INTC), AMD ($AMD), Applied Materials ($AMAT) (“it’s different this time”)
* Value Tech: Adobe ($ADBE), Oracle ($ORCL), ServiceNow ($NOW) and Nvidia ($NVDA)
* Tech With Biggest Moat: Apple ($AAPL)
* Value Industrial: Caterpillar ($CAT)
* Best Overall Value: Homebuilders
* Streaming: Netflix ($NFLX)
* Autonomous: Uber ($UBER)
* Entertainment: Disney ($DIS)
* Financials: JPMorgan ($JPM), Citigroup ($C), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Morgan Stanley ($MS)
* Frontier Exposure “For The Long Haul”: SpaceX ($SPCX)
Non-Consensus Longs:
* Cannabis: $MSOS, $VRNOD, $TRLV, $GTBIF, $GLAS
* Private Equity: Apollo ($APO), Blackstone ($BX), KKR ($KKR)
* Consumer Staples: Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), PepsiCo ($PEP), Procter & Gamble ($PG)
Positions:
Long MSOS (L), VRNOD (S), TRLV (S), GTIBF (S), GLAS (S), APO (S), BX (S), KKR (S), KMB (S), PEP (S), PG (S)
Short SPCX (VS), SNDK (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS), AMAT (VS), AMD (VS), CAT (VS)
One month ago Kimberly-Clark ($KMB) traded at $93 and is now nearly $111/share.
I have reduced my weighting to very small.
Position: Long KMB (VS)
Breadth mixed (but sector divergences are wild), trading inconsistent and swinging wildly intraday:
* Despite the evisceration of tech yesterday, there are few tech stocks higher on the day — Google ($GOOGL) (DJIA inclusion), Amazon ($AMZN), Apple ($AAPL)
League leading hitter, Nvidia ($NVDA), has cracked to the downside some fractal support
* Hard reversal lower in financial stocks
* Carnage in the oil patch ($OIH -$13) with oil -$2.65
* Consumer staples are the world’s fair ($KO, $PEP, $PG and $KMB)
* Private equity shares are breaking down (after more redemptions and gates)
* Bitcoin breaks $60k to the downside (remember this was one of the possible catalysts I mentioned to a disrupted market filled with leveraged players)
* Speculative faves $PLTR (don’t investors ever learn?) and $HOOD are breaking down
Position: Long KO (S), PEP (S), PG (S), KMB (S)
