Will Questionable Tech Earnings Be Enough to Change Sentiment?
With tech stock earnings disappointing investors, does this mean that we’ll see a change in sentiment? Plus, three new ideas from me.
A Fair Criticism Deserves a Response
Subscriber jryan (below) delivered some reasonable comments and criticism yesterday in the Comments Section.
Basically he said he is “getting sick of reading about cannabis and Fin TV commentary” — and he wants more (long) stock suggestions, etc.
I wanted to respond in the first column of the day.
* Few longs have represented value to me as I have been unduly negative for a lengthy period of time. I take ownership of that.
* The stocks that I have owned have recently been Staples ($KO, $PEP, $PG and $KMB), selected cannabis names and some others. The consumer nondurable stocks have been fine recently (and I have taken profits in them). We shall see about cannabis — a speculative sector and my focus has been intermediate-term based on the improved likelihood of rescheduling and other factors clearly delineated in my Diary.
*As to the CNBC constructive criticism. I point these out not only as an advocate of the retail viewer that should see timestamps (panelists taking ownership) and observe better company interviews, but so they can evaluate the merits and process of the panelists’ recommendations and become better-informed investors through more hard-hitting interviews (that serve more than as a marketing tool of companies).
* But the criticism directed to Fin TV also is intended to highlight investment recommendations from panelists and guests that I strongly disagree with. Choosing stocks to avoid (in that FIN TV criticism) can be as valuable or even more valuable than choosing stocks to buy. Consider my negative comments towards $BA, $BABA, $META, $UBER, $NFLX, $RDDT, $TTAN, $DIS, $CLF, $MRNA and $UNH (a few years back) etc. that were mostly confidently and strenuously recommended on CNBC.
* My “More Tales From Nvidia” series is intended to deliver the idea that the functionality, productivity and ROIC on the enormous capital spend may disappoint the many and multitude of optimists on AI. I have felt that my contrarian and non herd-like observations were valuable in a backdrop of near-universal bullishness (that is readily and frequently available from the buy/sell sides, panelists and guests). My view was that dwelling on “More Tales” had statistical value in that over 40% of the S&P is comprised of large-cap tech.
* As to specific AI beneficiaries, I have admitted (often) of missing $MSFT and $GOOGL. The valuation on $AAPL seems foolish to me — the shares have prospered and I have been wrong. But the others ($META, $AMZN and even $NVDA) have not set the world on fire this year. As to memory and chip stocks, they have been “the world’s fair” up until the summer but awful since late June. Not only do I think these companies are “overearning,” but the volatility is not for me and not consistent and doesn’t conform with my appetite for risk.
* The financial stocks were quite strong until early summer. I repeatedly cautioned not to embrace banks, brokers and private equity shares (I successfully shorted $BX, $KKR and $APOL since then). Viewed by panelists as perhaps the best “value play,” financials have been dismal over the last four months. We avoided this decline (in $C, $JPM, $BAC, $GS, $MS et al).
* The stocks that I have been short in the AI sphere have been terrific (to the downside) — $ORCL and $CRWV. (Avoiding them as longs has also been a valuable contribution.) My recent foray into shorting NVDA was profitable also.
* As to my preoccupation with CNBC I suggest taking the number of words written about FIN TV and divide it by the number of words written on other subjects daily. You will find my criticism is dwarfed by my other columns. In the scheme of things my criticism is de minimis.
* Finally, to jryan I say there are many other contributors that actively recommend longs and provide a valuable service.
All this said I am imperfect.
I take ownership of my mistakes.
The transparency of my Diary exposes my blemishes.
I believe jryan has some good points and I will purposefully look for more long ideas in the future.
I truly appreciate jryan’s comments and I have tried to respond to his concerns:
jryan
Just a thought. There used to be a lot of different investment ideas, stock suggestions etc., but all it seems to be now is cannabis and CNBC commentary, which I don’t watch anyway. Kind of getting sick of it, especially the cannabis info, is it ever going to pay off? Likely, but it will be quite a while from today, if ever. But at least it’s easier to scroll through the commentary and use less time.
Position: Long KO (VS), PG (VS), KMB (VS), MSOS common (VL) and calls (VS), VRNO (VS), GLAS (S), GTBIF (S), TRLV (VS), CURLF (VS); Short AAPL (S)
India Readies for Largest-Ever IPO
Jio Platforms, backed by Meta and Google, is due to list on Wednesday. Here’s what to watch in the offering.
Another Sentiment Indicator Shows a Bearish Turn
The tech stocks are due for an oversold rally. Sentiment remains complacent, but more bears are joining the fray.
From The Street of Dreams
$META: Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak raised the firm’s price target on Meta Platforms to $820 from $775 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as the firm updated its model into Q3 results.
$LLY: BofA raised the firm’s price target on Eli Lilly to $1,397 from $1,341 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm’s Q3 physician obesity survey adds validation for oral GLP-1s and the Medicare Bridge as U.S. “category expanders,” the analyst tells investors.
$APO:Piper Sandler lowered the firm’s price target on Apollo Global to $145 from $159 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Going into Q3 results, sentiment remains negative in the alternative asset manager space, which has put a cap on stock prices over the last three months. The firm expects monetization commentary to be a headwind with realizations likely to be pushed out further, and sees increased scrutiny on data center financing. Core fundamentals including management fees, fee related earnings, and margins should remain solid, but Piper doesn’t expect a breakout given sentiment as well as seemingly apathy from many investors.
$KKR: Piper Sandler lowered the firm’s price target on KKR to $121 from $128 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Going into Q3 results, sentiment remains negative in the alternative asset manager space, which has put a cap on stock prices over the last three months. The firm expects monetization commentary to be a headwind with realizations likely to be pushed out further, and sees increased scrutiny on data center financing. Core fundamentals including management fees, fee related earnings, and margins should remain solid, but Piper doesn’t expect a breakout given sentiment as well as seemingly apathy from many investors.
$BX: Piper Sandler analyst Crispin Love lowered the firm’s price target on Blackstone to $125 from $130 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Going into Q3 results, sentiment remains negative in the alternative asset manager space, which has put a cap on stock prices over the last three months. The firm expects monetization commentary to be a headwind with realizations likely to be pushed out further, and sees increased scrutiny on data center financing. Core fundamentals including management fees, fee related earnings, and margins should remain solid, but Piper doesn’t expect a breakout given sentiment as well as seemingly apathy from many investors.
From last week – I covered all my private equity shorts:
More Short Covers
I am covering my private equity shorts:
- BX $106.31
- APO $113.17
- KKR $84.92
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Oct 14, 2026, 11:39 AM EDT
Positions: None.
From The Street of Dreams
$KKR: Morgan Stanley lowered the firm’s price target on KKR to $138 from $147 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With alts down about 27% year-to-date and positioning light, the firm sees upside for alternative asset managers despite near-term realization headwinds. Easing wealth redemption requests, robust institutional demand and resilient fee growth support the firm’s 2027 outlook and re-rating, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$BX: Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys lowered the firm’s price target on Blackstone to $165 from $184 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With alts down about 27% year-to-date and positioning light, the firm sees upside for alternative asset managers despite near-term realization headwinds. Easing wealth redemption requests, robust institutional demand and resilient fee growth support the firm’s 2027 outlook and re-rating, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$APO: Morgan Stanley lowered the firm’s price target on Apollo Global to $150 from $164 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With alts down about 27% year-to-date and positioning light, the firm sees upside for alternative asset managers despite near-term realization headwinds. Easing wealth redemption requests, robust institutional demand and resilient fee growth support the firm’s 2027 outlook and re-rating, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$AAPL: UBS tells investors in a research note that Apple iPhone availability data shows year-over-year wait times down about 4 days for the Pro and flat for Pro Max, with recent week-over-week declines of 1 and 5 days, respectively, signaling limited estimate upside and potential demand elasticity concerns following Apple’s price increases. The firm maintains a Neutral rating and $296 price target.
$TSLA: JPMorgan keeps a Neutral rating on Tesla after the company unveiled its second-generation Roadster. The car “combines conventional automotive engineering with rocket propulsion technology,” the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says production is targeted for 2028, compared with the original 2020 delivery target announced when the vehicle was first unveiled in 2017. Tesla did not disclose final pricing, battery capacity, driving range or anticipated production volumes, adds the firm. It points out that Tesla indicated the Roadster would eventually become its only manually driven vehicle as the broader portfolio transitions toward full autonomy.
$KO: Barclays raised the firm’s price target on Coca-Cola to $98 from $93 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the consumer staples group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. The “band of interest” within consumer staples remains “quite narrow” as few companies offer a “dependably defensive outlook and attractive valuation,” the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Note: I covered all of my private equity shorts ($BX, $KKR and $APO) on Wednesday at lower prices than Thursday’s close. Yesterday I sold down my small $KO long on the Kentucky Fried Chicken/Pepsico news and as the shares of Coca Cola hit an all-time high.
Positions: Long KO VS
More Short Covers
I am covering my private equity shorts:
* $BX $106.31
* $APO $113.17
* $KKR $84.92
Position: None
From The Street of Dreams
$KKR: UBS lowered the firm’s price target on KKR to $122 from $123 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
$BX: UBS analyst Michael Brown lowered the firm’s price target on Blackstone to $116 from $122 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
$APO: UBS lowered the firm’s price target on Apollo Global to $163 from $172 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
$WGO: Citi analyst James Hardiman lowered the firm’s price target on Winnebago to $24 from $29 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm lowered estimates in the recreational vehicle group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Retail weakness amid higher interest rates and gas prices will weigh on demand going into 2027, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$FRPT: TD Cowen lowered the firm’s price target on Freshpet to $80 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the food, beverage and personal care space, saying that despite many large cap staples stocks trading close to five-year lows, the risk/rewards remain unfavorable. Big food sales have stabilized, but lack a clear path back to growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. TD raised its non-alcoholic beverage sales forecast but says alcohol volumes remained weak through the summer.
$META: Truist analyst Youssef Squali raised the firm’s price target on Meta Platforms to $1,000 from $763 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its model with a rollover to its discounted cash flow derived valuation to FY27 from FY26 and also reflecting the expected contribution of Muse, offset by higher capital expenditure view, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Truist adds that it remains constructive on Meta heading into earnings, expecting results at the higher-end of guidance/consensus thanks to the company’s monetization and strong user engagement.
Positions: Short KKR S BX S APO S
From The Street of Dreams
Bank of America lowers financials…
KKR – BofA lowered the firm’s price target on $KKR to $138 from $143 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its estimates and price targets for alternative and traditional asset managers ahead of Q3 earnings from the group.
$BX – BofA analyst Craig Siegenthaler lowered the firm’s price target on Blackstone to $122 from $138 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its estimates and price targets for alternative and traditional asset managers ahead of Q3 earnings from the group.
$APO – BofA analyst Craig Siegenthaler lowered the firm’s price target on Apollo Global to $161 from $163 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its estimates and price targets for alternative and traditional asset managers ahead of Q3 earnings from the group.
$WFC – Goldman Sachs lowered the firm’s price target on Wells Fargo to $96 from $107 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Large-cap banks enter Q3 earnings with solid revenue and credit fundamentals but more normalized capital-markets activity, continued NII support from loan growth and fixed-rate repricing offset by higher deposit costs, and moderating capital returns, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$C – BofA analyst Ebrahim Poonawala lowered the firm’s price target on Citi to $160 from $176 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm revised its Q3 EPS estimates for the GSIB banks up by 0.8% on average, and reduced its price targets for the group down by about 8% on average, citing lower multiples.
$GS BofA lowered the firm’s price target on Goldman Sachs to $1,050 from $1,300 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm revised its Q3 EPS estimates for the GSIB banks up by 0.8% on average, and reduced its price targets for the group down by about 8% on average, citing lower multiples.
$WFC – Morgan Stanley upgraded Wells Fargo to Overweight from Equal Weight with an unchanged price target of $102. Morgan Stanley also moved Wells to Top Pick. The firm believes 2026 has been a transition year, with Wells rebuilding its “growth engine ahead of the full benefit to earnings and returns.” The bank’s earnings profile will improve in 2027 with less margin dilution, more revenue from existing client relationships, and continued operating leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley views Wells shares as undervalued and sees a path to 17% to return on tangible common equity in the second half of 2027 and 18% in 2028
Positions: Short APO VS KKR VS BX VS
More Tales From Nvidia: In the Stock Market It Is AI All the Time… and More (Issue #257!)
During Q3 2026 four equities (stimulated by perceived AI growth opportunities) — $MSFT, $NVDA, $AAPL and $META — added about 300 points to the gain in the S&P index, representing more than 200% of the index’s total gain. The other 496 stocks subtracted approximately 150 points:
Back to AI “concentration” credit risks — specifically that private equity (we remain short $BX, $APO, $OWL and $KKR) is piling into the same AI data center bet:
Carlyle warns private credit is piling into the same AI data center bet
More on depreciation schedules and creative accounting:
Finally, continued AI skepticism from “Moon Alice” — Roger McNamee:
and…
Position: Short BX (VS), KKR (VS), APO (VS), OWL (VS)