SoFI Up, HSBC Down: Upside, Downside Movers in the Morning

Upside

– $MFIC +23% (ARCC agrees to acquire it for $10.88 per share in cash and stock, valuing the transaction at about $2.6B)

– $INIO +14% (record Q3 results and FY26 revenue and EBITDA outlooks were raised)

– $CLS +12% (Q3 beat, FY26 outlook raised and initial 2027 guidance called for 90% revenue growth on accelerating AI-infrastructure demand)

– $SOFI +11% (record Q3 revenue and EBITDA, strong member growth and a raised FY26 outlook)

– $FER +9.9% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; unusually large, liquid move ahead of 9M results after the U.S. close)

– $RCL +5.3% (Q3 beat, bookings remained strong and the full-year profit outlook was raised)

– $CRDO +4.3%, $SKHY +3.2%, $COHR +2.7%, $AMKR +3.6%, $LITE +2.6%, $AVGO +2.9% (AI-chip and optical-connectivity names rise as the CLS outlook reinforces accelerating hyperscaler demand)

– $JCI +4.3% (Q4 beat and the FY27 profit outlook topped expectations)

– $SPGI +3.8% (FY26 outlook raised and a strategic review of Capital IQ businesses was launched)

– $NBIS +3.7%, BE +3.3%, CRWV +3.6%, VRT +2.2% (AI-infrastructure names gain after CLS said customer demand forecasts continue strengthening into 2027 and 2028)

– $NCLH +2.2%, CCL +2.7% (cruise peers rise after RCL beat expectations and raised its full-year profit outlook)

– $CDNS +1.8% (Q3 beat, FY outlook raised, backlog reached a record $8.2B and a $2.5B buyback was added)

– UPS +1.8% (Q3 beat and FY26 revenue and profit forecasts were raised as shipment mix and cost reductions improved)

Downside

– $XYL -8.5% (Q3 update disappointed, with investors focusing on softer revenue expectations)

– $WSO -8.3% (Q3 profit missed expectations)

– $HSBC -6.7% (Q3 revenue and pretax profit missed expectations, outweighing a new $1B buyback)

– $HLT -4.4% (Q3 earnings beat, but revenue missed and the raised RevPAR outlook was not enough for elevated expectations)

– $SHW -3.8% (Q3 results and outlook disappointed as housing-linked demand remained soft)

– $ONON -3.3% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; unusually large, high-volume premarket decline)

– $MAR -2.0% (hotel peer slips in sympathy with HLT after its revenue miss)

Tuesday’s Busy Calendar

It’s a full slate of economic data and earnings as the Fed starts its two-day meeting.

September US economic reports include durable goods orders and new home sales. October reports include Conference Board consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing and Dallas Fed services surveys. For August, we get the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indexes. We’ll also get the weekly ADP NER Pulse.

The FOMC begins its two-day meeting, with the decision Wednesday at 2pm ET.

Non-Bill (>1yr in maturity) US Treasury auctions are $70B of 5-year notes. Treasury will also conduct a buyback of 20- to 30-year securities.

41 S&P 500 components report, six of them with market caps over $100bn:

  • Before the open: Coca-Cola ($KO), Boeing ($BA), S&P Global ($SPGI), HCA Healthcare ($HCA), Freeport-McMoRan ($FCX), American Tower ($AMT), Johnson Controls ($JCI), UPS ($UPS), Sherwin-Williams ($SHW), Ecolab ($ECL), Hilton ($HLT), Illinois Tool Works ($ITW), Royal Caribbean ($RCL), Paccar ($PCAR), PayPal ($PYPL), IQVIA ($IQV), CenterPoint Energy ($CNP), Xylem ($XYL), Hubbell ($HUBB), CMS Energy ($CMS), Invesco ($IVZ) and Pentair ($PNR)
  • After the close: Visa ($V), Seagate Technology ($STX), Waste Management ($WM), Robinhood ($HOOD), Oneok ($OKE), NXP Semiconductors ($NXPI), Baker Hughes ($BKR), Ventas ($VTR), EQT ($EQT), Arch Capital ($ACGL), Extra Space Storage ($EXR), FirstEnergy ($FE), F5 ($FFIV), PPG Industries ($PPG), Expand Energy ($EXE), Essex Property Trust ($ESS), CoStar Group ($CSGP), Universal Health Services ($UHS) and BXP ($BXP)

Outside the US, Novartis ($NVS) and Porsche ($DRPRY) have reported, followed by SK Hynix ($SKHY) tonight.

Ex-US highlights include China September industrial profits, South Korea Q3 GDP, France October consumer confidence, Eurozone September M3 and the ECB’s Q3 Bank Lending Survey. Israel also holds parliamentary elections.

From Christophe Barraud’s international Week Ahead rundown: