Who Wants to Believe in Iran Talks? (The Markets Do); Big Earnings; Yen Plan
Let’s look at how Trump holds off big attack on Iran and the markets look optimistic, a joint plan for the yen, and earnings on tap for this week.
Oil Climbs; AMD Takes Stage; Google, Other Big Earnings on Tap
Iran fighting rages on; Advanced Micro Devices showcases at AI event; GM, Alphabet, IBM, Tesla, Lockheed Martin and American Express among names reporting.
Despite Semis Shock, the Market Remains Firmly Complacent
Do we bounce early and then go down again or do we just slide? That will tell traders a lot.
My View on Disney
Disney’s ($DIS) shares have sat out the multi-year bull market and we have sat out Disney.
Our analytical criticism is multi faceted:
* Admission prices at the company’s theme parks are absurdly high — a weakening consumer in the K-shaped economy will almost certainly experience demand elasticity (and a reluctance to attend the parks).
* Disney’s movie lineup is dated and continues to demonstrate disappointing box office sales. ‘Moana’ joins ‘Snow White’ as the latest live-action Disney film to bomb at box office | OutKick
* The company’s balance sheet is debt heavy from a slate of poorly conceived acquisitions. At worst, it could inhibit needed capital spending/expansion at parks, et al.
* AI remains a threat to a number of Disney’s businesses.
All this said, there is a price (and favorable reward vs. risk) for everything. I live under $90 for Disney.
Position: None
Dogs With Fleas
* Uber ($UBER)
* Disney ($DIS)
* Netflix ($NFLX)
Position: None
Examining ‘Group Stink’
* And fading it…
I don’t own and am currently short (and have been recently short C, JPM, GS, MS, UBER, NFLX, homebuilders, etc.) some of the most consensus sectors.
I am long some of the most non-consensus sectors.
Consensus Longs:
* Memory: SanDisk ($SNDK), Micron ($MU), Intel ($INTC), AMD ($AMD), Applied Materials ($AMAT) (“it’s different this time”)
* Value Tech: Adobe ($ADBE), Oracle ($ORCL), ServiceNow ($NOW) and Nvidia ($NVDA)
* Tech With Biggest Moat: Apple ($AAPL)
* Value Industrial: Caterpillar ($CAT)
* Best Overall Value: Homebuilders
* Streaming: Netflix ($NFLX)
* Autonomous: Uber ($UBER)
* Entertainment: Disney ($DIS)
* Financials: JPMorgan ($JPM), Citigroup ($C), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Morgan Stanley ($MS)
* Frontier Exposure “For The Long Haul”: SpaceX ($SPCX)
Non-Consensus Longs:
* Cannabis: $MSOS, $VRNOD, $TRLV, $GTBIF, $GLAS
* Private Equity: Apollo ($APO), Blackstone ($BX), KKR ($KKR)
* Consumer Staples: Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), PepsiCo ($PEP), Procter & Gamble ($PG)
Positions:
Long MSOS (L), VRNOD (S), TRLV (S), GTIBF (S), GLAS (S), APO (S), BX (S), KKR (S), KMB (S), PEP (S), PG (S)
Short SPCX (VS), SNDK (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS), AMAT (VS), AMD (VS), CAT (VS)
Michael Burry Vs. My Panic Points; Ferocious Foxconn Sales; Bad Jobs Data
Why I’m sticking to plan on memory stocks; also, let’s brace for the week ahead, check the markets’ charts, and interpret those jobs numbers.
A Big Rally Thursday. How Did Sentiment Change?
A big down day yesterday, followed by a rally today. Let’s check in to see how investors are feeling.