Real GDP grew the fastest since Q3 2025, and final sales to private domestic purchasers rose the most since Q2 2021. Core PCE prices slowed to the least since Q3 2024, but year-over-year remained above 3%.
The Conference Board’s index jumped to 91.7, the highest since June and far above the 81.0 expected, even as consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods.
Final October University of Michigan read improved but remained at a five-month low. Buying conditions for durables hit a record low and inflation expectations rose to the highest since May with the report warning against them becoming ‘entrenched.’
Retail sales rose 0.8% versus a 0.3% estimate, but gas stations were over 70% of that gain while the GDP-linked control group missed and Census’s annual revision cut sales levels by about 4.5%.
The Fed’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances showed income gaps narrowed while wealth gaps widened. Debt stress rose even as more families reported increased spending.
Sentiment slips to just 1.5 points above its all-time low with current conditions at a record while inflation expectations rise.
Revolving balances (credit cards) dropped the most since November 2024 in August, while nonrevolving credit (student loan + autos) climbed to another record high.
Core and headline PCE prices cut by annual benchmark revision. Spending jumps even as real incomes turned negative, pulling the saving rate to the least since Nov. 2022.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index falls to the lowest since April 2014, breaking the pandemic low, as the labor market differential drops to its weakest since early 2021.
Final September UMich read shows consumer sentiment sinking to a four-month low as inflation expectations rise.
