Examining ‘Group Stink’

And fading it…

I don’t own and am currently short (and have been recently short C, JPM, GS, MS, UBER, NFLX, homebuilders, etc.) some of the most consensus sectors.

I am long some of the most non-consensus sectors.

Consensus Longs:

* Memory: SanDisk ($SNDK), Micron ($MU), Intel ($INTC), AMD ($AMD), Applied Materials ($AMAT) (“it’s different this time”)

* Value Tech: Adobe ($ADBE), Oracle ($ORCL), ServiceNow ($NOW) and Nvidia ($NVDA)

* Tech With Biggest Moat: Apple ($AAPL)

* Value Industrial: Caterpillar ($CAT)

* Best Overall Value: Homebuilders

* Streaming: Netflix ($NFLX)

* Autonomous: Uber ($UBER)

* Entertainment: Disney ($DIS)

* Financials: JPMorgan ($JPM), Citigroup ($C), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Morgan Stanley ($MS) 

* Frontier Exposure “For The Long Haul”: SpaceX ($SPCX)

Non-Consensus Longs:

* Cannabis: $MSOS, $VRNOD, $TRLV, $GTBIF, $GLAS

* Private Equity: Apollo ($APO), Blackstone ($BX), KKR ($KKR)

* Consumer Staples: Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), PepsiCo ($PEP), Procter & Gamble ($PG)

Positions:

Long MSOS (L), VRNOD (S), TRLV (S), GTIBF (S), GLAS (S), APO (S), BX (S), KKR (S), KMB (S), PEP (S), PG (S)

Short SPCX (VS), SNDK (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS), AMAT (VS), AMD (VS), CAT (VS)

 

More Tales From Nvidia: Did the AI Bubble Just Pop? (Issue #215!) 

See this tweet:

But, more importantly, the subtweet under it:

I think that is the leading indicator. Although I would modify the subtweet a bit.  

This also means the revenue growth is flattening. The spike we had that really kicked off this last rally was artificial. It was unsustainable tokenmaxxing (and apparently Anthropic also had a big 1x pull in of revenue in Q3, if I remember correctly). The consumer quickly found out they were doing the opposite of gaining productivity, they were costing themselves more money than the humans they had.  

So it has been stopped. Then the biz also started shifting to China/Open Source as well. A double whammy. 

No wonder SpaceX ($SPCX) and Meta ($META) are selling excess capacity all of the sudden…  and why Blackstone ($BX) is rumored to be stopping data center projects, for example. 

Position: Long BX (S); Short SPCX (VS)

Financial Services Shorts

I am now short C ($C) and JPM ($JPM) against my private equity longs ($BX), ($KKR) and ($APOL)

Positions: Long BX S KKR S APOL S; Short C S JPM S.

PE Additions

Added to private equity longs – all of them are a couple off the intraday highs:

* BX ($BX) $121.64

*KKR ($KKR) $94.26

*APO ($APO) $118.95

Positions: Long BX S KKR S APO S

Adding to 3 Longs

I’m adding to private equity longs:

* $APO $118.22

* $BX $119.37 

* $KKR $92.44

An investment and not a trade.

Position: Long APO (S), BX (S), KKR (S)

New Private Equity Positions

I neglected to mention that I took starter long positions in private equity late yesterday:

* KKR ($KKR) $91.85

* BX ($BX) $117.15

* APO ($APO) $116.96

I plan to reshort banks/brokers as a pair trade with this long.

Positions: Long KKR VS BX VS APO VS