Credit Markets Send Financial Warning Despite Index All-Time Highs
Prudent investors should position their portfolios accordingly.
Things I Did Yesterday
Here are Monday’s things:
* I reshorted the indices after the market closed last night — $SPY at $767.32 and $QQQ at $717.13.
* I added to my $MSOS common at $4.94 and call long positions (slightly out of the money for September and October).
* I added to $VRNO at $6.12.
* I initiated a very small $GLD long at $405.42 (which I added to overnight at $401.28).
* I added to my $CRM short at $260.24.
* I reshorted the private equity space — $APO at $137.61, $BX at $142.94 and $KKR at $110.63.
* I reshorted $CRWV at $85.02.
* I reshorted $JPM at $356.14.
Long MSOS common VL calls S VRNO S GLD VS
Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S), CRM (S), CRWV (VS), APO (VS), BX (VS), KKR (VS), JPM (S)
With September Cool Comes Three Big Concerns
I’m looking forward to a break from the heat, but not to these economic worries that could add to already poor seasonality.
Of All Post-Earnings Worries, This One Keeps Me Up at Night
Fighting with Iran and threats the conflict could spread concern me. Another worry is Japan’s bond yields. But neither bother me as much as this.
Nvidia’s $500B Plan, Intel Raises Cash, Iran Digs In
Here’s my take on Intel after it taps the capital markets, that huge Nvidia plan, and the lack of a deal with Iran.
3 Longs Liquidated
I have liquidated my three private equity stock (long) positions after a strong run recently:
* $APO $129.72 (+$4.13)
* $BX $134.58 (+$8.12)
* $KKR $107.12 (+$5.69)
Position: None
Google and Tesla Boost Capex: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Thursday
Inflation pressures build, AMD’s chip event, United Rentals crushes it, and other headlines are moving stocks this morning.
Examining ‘Group Stink’
* And fading it…
I don’t own and am currently short (and have been recently short C, JPM, GS, MS, UBER, NFLX, homebuilders, etc.) some of the most consensus sectors.
I am long some of the most non-consensus sectors.
Consensus Longs:
* Memory: SanDisk ($SNDK), Micron ($MU), Intel ($INTC), AMD ($AMD), Applied Materials ($AMAT) (“it’s different this time”)
* Value Tech: Adobe ($ADBE), Oracle ($ORCL), ServiceNow ($NOW) and Nvidia ($NVDA)
* Tech With Biggest Moat: Apple ($AAPL)
* Value Industrial: Caterpillar ($CAT)
* Best Overall Value: Homebuilders
* Streaming: Netflix ($NFLX)
* Autonomous: Uber ($UBER)
* Entertainment: Disney ($DIS)
* Financials: JPMorgan ($JPM), Citigroup ($C), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Morgan Stanley ($MS)
* Frontier Exposure “For The Long Haul”: SpaceX ($SPCX)
Non-Consensus Longs:
* Cannabis: $MSOS, $VRNOD, $TRLV, $GTBIF, $GLAS
* Private Equity: Apollo ($APO), Blackstone ($BX), KKR ($KKR)
* Consumer Staples: Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), PepsiCo ($PEP), Procter & Gamble ($PG)
Positions:
Long MSOS (L), VRNOD (S), TRLV (S), GTIBF (S), GLAS (S), APO (S), BX (S), KKR (S), KMB (S), PEP (S), PG (S)
Short SPCX (VS), SNDK (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS), AMAT (VS), AMD (VS), CAT (VS)
More Tales From Nvidia: Did the AI Bubble Just Pop? (Issue #215!)
See this tweet:
But, more importantly, the subtweet under it:
I think that is the leading indicator. Although I would modify the subtweet a bit.
This also means the revenue growth is flattening. The spike we had that really kicked off this last rally was artificial. It was unsustainable tokenmaxxing (and apparently Anthropic also had a big 1x pull in of revenue in Q3, if I remember correctly). The consumer quickly found out they were doing the opposite of gaining productivity, they were costing themselves more money than the humans they had.
So it has been stopped. Then the biz also started shifting to China/Open Source as well. A double whammy.
No wonder SpaceX ($SPCX) and Meta ($META) are selling excess capacity all of the sudden… and why Blackstone ($BX) is rumored to be stopping data center projects, for example.
Position: Long BX (S); Short SPCX (VS)
Financial Services Shorts
I am now short C ($C) and JPM ($JPM) against my private equity longs ($BX), ($KKR) and ($APOL)
Positions: Long BX S KKR S APOL S; Short C S JPM S.