A Fair Criticism Deserves a Response

Subscriber jryan (below) delivered some reasonable comments and criticism yesterday in the Comments Section. 

Basically he said he is “getting sick of reading about cannabis and Fin TV commentary” — and he wants more (long) stock suggestions, etc.  

I wanted to respond in the first column of the day. 

* Few longs have represented value to me as I have been unduly negative for a lengthy period of time. I take ownership of that.

* The stocks that I have owned have recently been Staples ($KO, $PEP, $PG and $KMB), selected cannabis names and some others. The consumer nondurable stocks have been fine recently (and I have taken profits in them). We shall see about cannabis — a speculative sector and my focus has been intermediate-term based on the improved likelihood of rescheduling and other factors clearly delineated in my Diary.

*As to the CNBC constructive criticism. I point these out not only as an advocate of the retail viewer that should see timestamps (panelists taking ownership) and observe better company interviews, but so they can evaluate the merits and process of the panelists’ recommendations and become better-informed investors through more hard-hitting interviews (that serve more than as a marketing tool of companies). 

* But the criticism directed to Fin TV also is intended to highlight investment recommendations from panelists and guests that I strongly disagree with. Choosing stocks to avoid (in that FIN TV criticism) can be as valuable or even more valuable than choosing stocks to buy. Consider my negative comments towards $BA, $BABA, $META, $UBER, $NFLX, $RDDT, $TTAN, $DIS, $CLF, $MRNA and $UNH (a few years back) etc. that were mostly confidently and strenuously recommended on CNBC. 

* My “More Tales From Nvidia” series is intended to deliver the idea that the functionality, productivity and ROIC on the enormous capital spend may disappoint the many and multitude of optimists on AI. I have felt that my contrarian and non herd-like observations were valuable in a backdrop of near-universal bullishness (that is readily and frequently available from the buy/sell sides, panelists and guests). My view was that dwelling on “More Tales” had statistical value in that over 40% of the S&P is comprised of large-cap tech.   

* As to specific AI beneficiaries, I have admitted (often) of missing $MSFT and $GOOGL. The valuation on $AAPL seems foolish to me — the shares have prospered and I have been wrong.  But the others ($META, $AMZN and even $NVDA) have not set the world on fire this year. As to memory and chip stocks, they have been “the world’s fair” up until the summer but awful since late June. Not only do I think these companies are “overearning,” but the volatility is not for me and not consistent and doesn’t conform with my appetite for risk. 

*  The financial stocks were quite strong until early summer. I repeatedly cautioned not to embrace banks, brokers and private equity shares (I successfully shorted $BX, $KKR and $APOL since then). Viewed by panelists as perhaps the best “value play,” financials have been dismal over the last four months.  We avoided this decline (in $C, $JPM, $BAC, $GS, $MS et al).

* The stocks that I have been short in the AI sphere have been terrific (to the downside) — $ORCL and $CRWV. (Avoiding them as longs has also been a valuable contribution.) My recent foray into shorting NVDA was profitable also. 

* As to my preoccupation with CNBC I suggest taking the number of words written about FIN TV and divide it by the number of words written on other subjects daily. You will find my criticism is dwarfed by my other columns. In the scheme of things my criticism is de minimis. 

* Finally, to jryan I say there are many other contributors that actively recommend longs and provide a valuable service.

All this said I am imperfect.

I take ownership of my mistakes.

The transparency of my Diary exposes my blemishes. 

I believe jryan has some good points and I will purposefully look for more long ideas in the future. 

I truly appreciate jryan’s comments and I have tried to respond to his concerns:

jryan

Just a thought. There used to be a lot of different investment ideas, stock suggestions etc., but all it seems to be now is cannabis and CNBC commentary, which I don’t watch anyway. Kind of getting sick of it, especially the cannabis info, is it ever going to pay off? Likely, but it will be quite a while from today, if ever. But at least it’s easier to scroll through the commentary and use less time.

Position: Long KO (VS), PG (VS), KMB (VS), MSOS common (VL) and calls (VS), VRNO (VS), GLAS (S), GTBIF (S), TRLV (VS), CURLF (VS); Short AAPL (S)

Upgrades, Downgrades and New Research Coverage

Upgrades:

ArcelorMittal ($MT) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

Array Technologies ($ARRY) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho, Target: $5

Bank of America ($BAC) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird, Target: $62

BorgWarner ($BWA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA, Target: $85

Brighthouse Financial ($BHF) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan, Target: $55

CarMax ($KMX) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA, Target: $65

Casey’s General Stores ($CASY) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, Target: $825

Cemex ($CX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi, Target: $12

Crocs ($CROX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, Target: $139

Fortrea ($FTRE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, Target: $25

Lithium Americas ($LAC) upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold at Canaccord

Quantinuum ($QNT) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, Target: $62

Scotts Miracle-Gro ($SMG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, Target: $70

Walmart ($WMT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, Target: $136

Zions Bancorp ($ZION) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird, Target: $75

Downgrades:

Albertsons ($ACI) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, Target: $14

Albertsons ($ACI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs, Target: $13

Align Technology ($ALGN) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird, Target: $162

Cirrus Logic ($CRUS) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc

Dauch ($DCH) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA, Target: $5

Envista ($NVST) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird, Target: $26

Par Pacific ($PARR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs, Target: $94

Spotify ($SPOT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at StoneX

ZTO Express ($ZTO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs, Target: $22

New research coverage

AngloGold Ashanti ($AU) initiated with a Buy at Goldman Sachs, Target: $104

Antero Resources ($AR) initiated with a Sector Outperform at Scotiabank, Target: $46

APA Corp. ($APA) initiated with a Sector Perform at Scotiabank, Target: $44

Black Hills ($BKH) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, Target: $87

Bright Minds Biosciences ($DRUG) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research, Target: $150

CAMP4 Therapeutics ($CAMP) initiated with a Buy at Needham, Target: $8

Chord Energy ($CHRD) initiated with a Sector Outperform at Scotiabank, Target: $192

CNX Resources (CNX) initiated with a Sector Perform at Scotiabank, Target: $34

Crescent Energy ($CRGY) initiated with a Sector Outperform at Scotiabank, Target: $18

CRISPR Therapeutics ($CRSP) initiated with a Neutral at UBS, Target: $52

Devon Energy ($DVN) initiated with a Sector Outperform at Scotiabank, Target: $61

Diamondback Energy ($FANG) initiated with a Sector Outperform at Scotiabank, Target: $250

Digital Turbine ($APPS) resumed with a Buy at Roth Capital, Target: $19

Eloxx Pharmaceuticals ($ELOX) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald

EOG Resources ($EOG) initiated with a Sector Perform at Scotiabank, Target: $144

EQT Corporation ($EQT) initiated with a Sector Perform at Scotiabank, Target: $54

Establishment Labs ($ESTA) initiated with a Buy at Stifel, Target: $85

Fidelity National Information Services ($FIS) resumed with a Buy at BofA, Target: $42

First Financial Bankshares ($FFIN) initiated with a Market Perform at Raymond James

Fiserv ($FISV) resumed with an Underperform at BofA, Target: $48

Global Payments ($GPN) resumed with a Buy at BofA, Target: $114

Gold Fields ($GFI) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman Sachs, Target: $38

Gulfport Energy ($GPOR) initiated with a Sector Outperform at Scotiabank, Target: $217

HawkEye 360 ($HAWK) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler, Target: $22

Hemab Therapeutics ($COAG) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan, Target: $70

Infinity Natural Resources ($INR) initiated with a Sector Outperform at Scotiabank, Target: $17

Magnolia Oil & Gas ($MGY) initiated with a Sector Outperform at Scotiabank, Target: $31

Matador Resources ($MTDR) initiated with a Sector Perform at Scotiabank, Target: $59

MGE Energy ($MGEE) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan, Target: $76

Murphy Oil ($MUR) initiated with a Sector Perform at Scotiabank, Target: $41

Netflix ($NFLX) assumed with a Buy at Jefferies, Target: $85

Northern Oil and Gas ($NOG) initiated with a Sector Perform at Scotiabank, Target: $27

onsemi ($ON) initiated with a Buy at StoneX, Target: $110

Ovid Therapeutics ($OVID) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research, Target: $5

Permian Resources ($PR) initiated with a Sector Outperform at Scotiabank, Target: $29

Rapport Therapeutics ($RAPP) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research, Target: $50

Rapport Therapeutics ($RAPP) initiated with a Buy at UBS, Target: $71

Redwire ($RDW) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Sandler, Target: $11

Shift4 Payments ($FOUR) resumed with a Neutral at BofA, Target: $42

Sight Sciences ($SGHT) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, Target: $14

SM Energy ($SM) initiated with a Sector Perform at Scotiabank, Target: $39

Solid Biosciences ($SLDB) initiated with a Buy at UBS, Target: $20

Spectrum Brands ($SPB) resumed with a Buy at UBS, Target: $97

Suja Life ($SUJA) initiated with a Hold at Needham

Ultragenyx ($RARE) initiated with a Neutral at UBS, Target: $16

Vail Resorts ($MTN) initiated with a Market Perform at Citizens

Versant Media ($VSNT) initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, Target: $38

Viking Therapeutics ($VKTX) initiated with a Buy at UBS, Target: $94

Viper Energy ($VNOM) initiated with a Sector Outperform at Scotiabank, Target: $54

Warner Music Group ($WMG) initiated with a Buy at StoneX

Wave Life Sciences ($WVE) initiated with a Buy at UBS, Target: $11

York Space Systems ($YSS) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Sandler, Target: $9

Position: TheStreet Pro Portfolio is long BAC, NFLX