Weekly Roundup: Renewed AI Concerns Weigh on the Market and Portfolio
We added to six holdings, and upgraded and lifted a price target on another as favorable AI data conflicted with market emotion.
We added to six holdings, and upgraded and lifted a price target on another as favorable AI data conflicted with market emotion.
Worries about the sustainability of the AI trade surfaced once again, driving down a swath of related stocks, but other stocks rallied as Treasury yields dropped the most since August 2025, seeing equal-weight vs cap-weight the most extreme since 2024.
Much like Apple’s mix of iPhones, aircraft production mix and their price tags matter.
– $RAPP +26% (Phase 2 RAP-219 trial met the primary and secondary endpoints in bipolar mania)
– $MSCI +5.9% (Q3 earnings and revenue topped expectations)
– $EFX +5.5% (sharply positive initial reaction to Q3 results released before the bell)
– $HTZ +5.0% (Oro Mobility secured an $80 million strategic equity investment to accelerate its standalone growth)
– $HAL +4.4% (Q3 earnings and revenue beat expectations)
– $SNY +2.4% (no clear fresh catalyst identified; unusually strong, liquid ADR move)
– $APA +1.9%, $XOM +1.2%, $CVX +1.4%, $COP +1.5%, $OXY +1.6%, $SLB +1.4% (energy names rise as crude jumps on renewed Middle East supply risks)
– $VICR +1.7% (Q3 product and royalty revenue surged and gross margin expanded sharply)
– $GM -7.6% (Q3 beat, but the full-year profit range was narrowed with the upper end cut, disappointing expectations for another guidance raise)
– $GPC -6.3% (quarter narrowly beat, but the full-year earnings range was narrowed and its upper end cut)
– $STLD -5.4% (Q3 profit missed consensus and fell below the company’s own guidance despite a revenue beat)
– $AAOI -4.6%, SKHY -4.8%, COHR -3.5%, SNDK -3.2%, MU -2.7%, LITE -2.7% (AI hardware, memory and optical names fall as renewed bubble concerns and a weak Korean AI listing pressure the trade)
– $CCK -4.3% (Q3 reaction turns negative as rising input costs offset strong beverage-can volume growth)
– $CRWV -3.9%, NBIS -4.4%, IREN -4.3% (debt-heavy AI-infrastructure names fall as borrowing-cost and funding concerns deepen)
– $GE -3.6% (Q3 beat and the outlook was raised, but shares slip in a high-expectations sell-the-news reaction)
– $BHP -3.0% (quarterly copper production fell 19% on lower grades, maintenance and operational disruptions)
– $AAPL -1.4% (Loop Capital downgrades to Hold from Buy and cuts its target on weaker iPhone shipment expectations)
Microsoft walks on Nscale, food inflation poised to accelerate and other headlines moving the market this morning.
Another selloff in AI names broadened to encompass most of Tech, sending the Nasdaq-100 to its worst week since April 2025. Five sectors though would finish the week up 2% or more, as 30-year Treasury yields fell the most since April 2025.
We put capital to work in two holdings, exited another and bumped up our price target for a long-time position.
Pre-orders for Apple’s iPhone Duo extend out to late January, suggesting a favorable production mix shift.
$KKR: Morgan Stanley lowered the firm’s price target on KKR to $138 from $147 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With alts down about 27% year-to-date and positioning light, the firm sees upside for alternative asset managers despite near-term realization headwinds. Easing wealth redemption requests, robust institutional demand and resilient fee growth support the firm’s 2027 outlook and re-rating, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$BX: Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys lowered the firm’s price target on Blackstone to $165 from $184 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With alts down about 27% year-to-date and positioning light, the firm sees upside for alternative asset managers despite near-term realization headwinds. Easing wealth redemption requests, robust institutional demand and resilient fee growth support the firm’s 2027 outlook and re-rating, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$APO: Morgan Stanley lowered the firm’s price target on Apollo Global to $150 from $164 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With alts down about 27% year-to-date and positioning light, the firm sees upside for alternative asset managers despite near-term realization headwinds. Easing wealth redemption requests, robust institutional demand and resilient fee growth support the firm’s 2027 outlook and re-rating, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$AAPL: UBS tells investors in a research note that Apple iPhone availability data shows year-over-year wait times down about 4 days for the Pro and flat for Pro Max, with recent week-over-week declines of 1 and 5 days, respectively, signaling limited estimate upside and potential demand elasticity concerns following Apple’s price increases. The firm maintains a Neutral rating and $296 price target.
$TSLA: JPMorgan keeps a Neutral rating on Tesla after the company unveiled its second-generation Roadster. The car “combines conventional automotive engineering with rocket propulsion technology,” the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says production is targeted for 2028, compared with the original 2020 delivery target announced when the vehicle was first unveiled in 2017. Tesla did not disclose final pricing, battery capacity, driving range or anticipated production volumes, adds the firm. It points out that Tesla indicated the Roadster would eventually become its only manually driven vehicle as the broader portfolio transitions toward full autonomy.
$KO: Barclays raised the firm’s price target on Coca-Cola to $98 from $93 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the consumer staples group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. The “band of interest” within consumer staples remains “quite narrow” as few companies offer a “dependably defensive outlook and attractive valuation,” the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Note: I covered all of my private equity shorts ($BX, $KKR and $APO) on Wednesday at lower prices than Thursday’s close. Yesterday I sold down my small $KO long on the Kentucky Fried Chicken/Pepsico news and as the shares of Coca Cola hit an all-time high.
Positions: Long KO VS
Time Magazine, yes that Time, which as I know first hand still has some very relevant articles given the Signals alerts we share over at the Pro Portfolio, is running a very long piece today on new Apple ($AAPL) CEO John Ternus.
Whether you love it, hate it, own it, or don’t, you have to recognize Apple’s place in the technology landscape and its weighting in the S&P 500. For those reasons alone, you may want to more than skim this:
John Ternus Is Engineering a New Era for Apple
Position: The Pro Portfolio is long AAPL