Q3 GDP Trackers Cluster Near 3.3%, but GDPNow’s History Says Watch for an Upside Miss
Ahead of Q3 GDP later this morning the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow final Q3 nowcast came in at 3.27% Wednesday, the least since it initiated tracking for the quarter, down from its 6.18% peak on August 3.
Over the past two years, GDPNow’s last reading before the advance GDP report has been either very close or well off, with little in between. It was within a tenth in four of the last eight quarters (Q3 and Q4 2024, Q2 2025 and Q2 2026) and off by 0.75 percentage point or more in the other four.
Over its history since 2014 (excluding 2020), GDPNow’s average miss has been 0.59 point. It has been within half a point half the time and within a point 84% of the time.
But a couple of unique historical tendencies are worth keeping in mind:
▪ GDPNow’s final reading usually falls from where it stood a month before the release (34 of 56 quarters excluding 2020). That’s what we saw in Q1 and Q2, and now Q3, down 1.75 points from 5.02% on September 25. But when it has fallen more than half a point in that final month, the actual print has come in above its final reading in 16 of 22 quarters.
▪ In third quarters specifically, the advance print has come in above GDPNow’s final reading in 10 of 14 quarters (excluding 2020), by an average of 0.31 point.
Here’s GDPNow’s final breakdown of the components as of October 28 and changes from my last update October 20:
Consumption = +2.55% (0.00%)
Business spending (nonresidential fixed investment) = +1.73% (+0.16%)
Inventories = +1.64% (−0.21%)
Government = +0.44% (0.00%)
Residential investment = −0.13% (−0.03%)
Net exports = −2.95% (−0.09%)
GDPNow Forecast: +3.27% (−0.23%)
GDPNow, though, has plenty of company this quarter. As of Friday, six of the seven major trackers I follow were between 3.1% and 3.7%. The outlier is the New York Fed’s Staff Nowcast at 2.67%, where it has held for three weeks. The average as of Friday was 3.28% and the median 3.30%.
Bank of America’s tracker has been the most accurate of the group over the past year and is the highest this quarter at 3.70%.
