Earnings Calendar for Before the Open Thursday
Position: None
What My Gnome Is Hearing
* The Bull Market movie is in reverse today…
“Buyers live higher and sellers live lower.”
– Kass Diary
As I have mentioned market structure has changed meaningfully in the last decade.
Passives (ETFs) control float and the Pods (at multi-strategy Hedge Funds) control the marginal price.
That said, high above the Alps my Gnome is hearing that several large Pods have blown up and have been liquidating today — especially in high-beta and high-yield positions. (That is partly the reason for my covers in private equity, Nvidia ($NVDA) and CoreWeave ($CRWV).)
This, in turn, causes (passive) outflows, which forces passives (at the margin) to sell (their overowned and overweighted names).
Thus, today’s market schmeissing.
We learned from the Leopold (Situational Unawareness) and by past occurrences that forced selling often makes a bottom.
However, today’s selling, by multiple Pods seems less likely to produce a “V” type reaction/recovery.
Position: None
VIDEO: Navigating Sticky Inflation Without Losing Sight of the AI Opportunity
Inflation is heading up again. Here’s what investors should focus on next.
Stocks Set for Air Pocket as ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Grows
The market might hit a high note to end the year but 2027 won’t be as rosy.
Hot CPI Puts October Rate Hike Back in Play
Core rises 0.33% from August, a second hot monthly print, as gains spread well beyond energy. October rate-hike odds more than double.
No Broadening
“Investment vision is always 20/20 when viewed from the rear view mirror.”
– Warren Buffett
$IWM is -$5 today at $271.50 and down from a recent high of $305.
So when the panelists talk about a broadening market, turn off your television and do some research.
Position: None
More Short Covers
I am covering my private equity shorts:
* $BX $106.31
* $APO $113.17
* $KKR $84.92
Position: None
Reacting to Earnings From Our 2 Big Bank Holdings
More to come after the earnings call and what it reveals about investment banking prospects.
Housekeeping Items
I have taken profits in these two shorts just now:
* $NVDA $224.25 (-$4.05 today)
* $CRWV $67.53 (-$10.25 today)
Position: None