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From Abie from Brooklyn:

Over the last decade Nvidia’s shares have scaled Mr. Everest. But no one lives there and the descent may now be beginning. 

One of the most difficult things to ascertain in markets is when the moment at top is reached. In the cases of spectacular rises, many are usually watching and a brave (foolhardy?) few are trying to identify the top before it happens. 

Few efforts have been more intense than this same effort in the case of NVDA. It is often said that tops in such spectacular arcs are identifiable only afterwards in hindsight. 

But i believe the top in NVDA could now be signaled by the combination of the stock’s price response in the market when earnings were released last night and the details of the company’s cash generation and use.

The stock price response to the report could not have been more subdued. A nominal wiggle up and down around the last price and now a price drop. The cash from operations part of the release offered no reason for any upside either…just a requirement that the bald facts of it – that the company has been using every last dollar of cash left over from actual operations to continue to finance the circular flows supporting revenues – all in the service of finally providing NO FURTHER SURPRISES.

And that is what moonshot tops look like. NO FURTHER UPSIDE SURPRISES!!  

After every possible penny has been used to inflate results and still no further surprise beyond the most bullish expectations have already driven the stock to all time highs, then the rocket engines have exhausted their fuel, the momentum has reached its peak and the inevitable rollover must now be discounted in the market. At the stratospheric projections of future positive surprises that are built into the stock, a no-meaningful surprise report and reaction is THE time to leave the ship in the lifeboat.

Expect any further new high producing manipulations to be used by the smartest with the largest positions to begin manning the lifeboats and dropping off into the icy seas that may await this modern Titanic.

Position: None

From Peter Boockvar:

US mfr’g benefiting again from ‘precautionary stock building’

After the PMI’s seen abroad today, manufacturing was good in the US in May too with the S&P Global PMI rising to 55.3 from 54.5 but again, “an accompanying marked influx of new orders for goods in part again reflected precautionary stock building by clients. Order book growth in manufacturing was also purely domestically driven, with goods exports falling again.”

With prices paid, “Manufacturing input costs registered their largest monthly increase since June 2022.” With respect to prices received, “Goods prices showed a particularly marked rise, the rate of increase hitting the highest since September 2022.”

Employment benefited from the rise in order rates, “manufacturing payrolls showed the largest rise for 11 months as factories raised headcounts to meet the recent upturn in orders.”

As the services piece of this PMI is missing the key sectors of retail/wholesale trade and construction, quotes from S&P Global on services is not complete so we’ll wait to see the full coverage from ISM.

Positions: None.

BREAKING: U.S. national debt officially hits $39 trillion, adding approximately $5 billion a day since October, per FORTUNE

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 21, 2026

Positions: None.

Conflicted Fin TV (The Death Star):

1. @joesquawk will never say anything untoward regarding President policy (or be critical of any Republican) – as he entertains to an audience of one
2. @jimcramer (unfortunately because he is very smart, engaged and a fine person) will never…

— Dougie Kass (@DougKass) May 21, 2026

Positions: None.

From Peter Boockvar:

Data center spending continues on/Retail comments/Global PMIs roll out

I’ll dive right into some earnings calls and relevant comments.

Starting with Nvidia, another great quarter and guidance increase but another muted stock reaction to earnings. I’m guessing investors are seeing only downside in coming years to its gross margins of 75%, which were in line with expectations, due to increasing competition. That said, the stock obviously rallied right into the print so could have already priced in the numbers.

Amazingly off such a big base, “Total revenue of $82 billion was up 85% y/o/y and 20% sequentially.”

“We capitalized on the inflection and inference demand by ramping Blackwell systems across our diverse end customer base, from hyperscalers to model makers to AI cloud providers and sovereign customers.”

“Demand for AI infrastructure continues to expand at an unprecedented pace. The build out of AI factories is accelerating.”

And you don’t have to only sell semiconductors or servers to benefit from the data center construction. Eagle Materials makes cement, wallboard, and aggregates and said this yesterday on their call:

After mentioning the “current choppy business environment”, “In the cement sector, infrastructure and cement intensive non-residential construction applications are tightening several of our regional markets. Given the federal infrastructure spending still ahead for IIJA, the strength of state level infrastructure budgets and the data center projects positively affecting our entire footprint, the volume outlook for our Heavy Materials businesses remain favorable across our entire footprint.”

Walmart beat top line, met bottom line for Q1 but is lowering guidance for Q2 in part due to lower fuel margins. Not much color in the earnings release ahead of the call but the CFO spoke to Bloomberg News and said this:

“The headline consumer is still reasonably healthy. The high income consumer is spending with confidence in many categories, whereas the low-income consumer, we can tell, is more budget conscious, trying to navigate certain financial distress.”

From Target, down 4% yesterday:

With the comp rise of 5.6% “We’re encouraged that this top line growth was broad based, with growth across both stores and digital channels led by traffic, net sales increases in all six of our core merchandise categories, broad based strength across guest demographics and cohorts, and momentum around both key seasonal events and everyday moments. Despite this early progress, we know our work is just beginning as we were lapping softer results in Q1 of 2025.”

This was the other caveat, “Furthermore, we believe this year’s higher tax refunds were a source of upside to consumer spending in Q1, and that benefit will be fading over the rest of the year. While consumers have proven to be resilient so far, sentiment has been declining recently, and we’re keeping a close eye on their spending behavior.”

“Looking ahead, we will continue to focus on providing full year guidance, but…we’ll be facing more challenging prior year comparisons in Q2. In addition, we continue to expect more challenging cost headwinds in the first half of the year that are expected to moderate in the second half.”

From TJX and whose stock continues to shine in a tough space because of its value proposition to customers, rising almost 6% yesterday:

Overall comps were up 6% and “I am particularly pleased that each of our divisions delivered strong comp sales growth and drove increases in customer transactions. With our above planned first quarter sales, we are raising our full year sales and profitability outlook.”

“I am confident that our values and merchandise assortment resonated with consumers across all of our retail banners and that each of our divisions grew their customer base.”

“we saw very strong comp sales increases in both apparel and home categories.”

The key to their success, “we continue to just see that we are pricing our goods at fantastic value against what the full price out-the-door retail is.” And, “transactions have remained healthy and…we’re consistent across all of our divisions…in terms of transactions.”

But, “I want to mention that we did not flow the entire first quarter pre-tax profit and EPS beat to the full year, as we are now planning current fuel prices to remain in place for the rest of the year. Of course, if fuel prices come down from their current levels, we would expect to see favorability to our full year profitability plan.”

From Elf Beauty and whose stock is popping 10% this morning as numbers beat estimates:

But, “Our spring 2026 innovation is off to a slower start than we expected, and as a result, we’re not seeing the lift across our core items at spring innovation as historically delivered…As we look at the state of the consumer today, we have recently seen a more pronounced decline in units.”

In response, they are cutting some prices, also enabled by a lower tariff hit.

“As we consider the conflict in the Middle East, we are starting to see some inflationary pressure on commodities and transportation costs, like many other companies have spoken about. Assuming that oil prices remain around $100 per barrel on average, we estimate, we could face $15 million to $20 million of incremental cost headwinds in fiscal ‘27.”

Global PMI’s are beginning to roll out for May. Australia’s fell back below 50 at 47.8 from 50.4 with services the main reason, down 3 pts m/o/m to 47.7. Manufacturing stayed above 50 at 50.2 but down from 51.3. Aussie bond yields did fall by about 10 bps after an unexpected decline in employment in April and an uptick of 2 tenths to 4.5% in their unemployment rate.

Japan’s composite index dropped 1.1 pts m/o/m to 51.1 with services down 1 pt to exactly 50 while manufacturing held up at 54.5 vs 55.1 in the month before. Something I keep pointing out and what helped the April manufacturing figure too, “The sustained rise in manufacturing production (and sales) was partly supported by stockpiling efforts, as the war in the Middle East continued to impact product availability and drive up prices.”

And more on prices, “prices data painted an increasingly concerning picture for Japanese businesses. Overall, costs rose at the sharpest pace in 3 ½ years, while selling price inflation quickened to a fresh survey high.”

India’s PMI held steady at 58.1 with services at 58.9 and manufacturing at 54.3. This is in the face of higher energy prices and supply needs that they mostly import.

In the Eurozone, the May composite index fell to 47.5 from 48.8 with services the main pain point at 46.4, down 1.2 pts m/o/m. Manufacturing was 51.4 vs 52.2 and again helped by the pull forward of orders. S&P Global said “The service sector is being hit especially hard by the surge in the cost of living created by the war, notably via the demand sapping impact of higher energy prices. While there has been some support to manufacturing from precautionary stock building, this boost is starting to fade, with demand for both goods and services now in decline.”

And this too, “Job losses are also starting to become worryingly widespread as business confidence in any swift turnaround in the adverse economic climate fades further.”

With inflation, input costs rose at the fastest rate in 3 ½ years while output charges were at a 38 month high.

The May UK PMI dropped back below 50 at 48.5 from 52.6 all driven by the decline in services to 47.9 from 52.7. Manufacturing held at 53.7. Again with manufacturing, “manufacturers noted a temporary uptick in demand amid customer front loading to beat price hikes and potential supply disruptions.”

With services, “Anecdotal evidence cited greater economic hesitancy and weaker investment sentiment among clients, alongside delayed consumer spending decisions in response to the Middle East war (especially for international travel). A number of firms also cited domestic political uncertainty as a factor weighing on confidence among clients.”

I am making ($VRNO) my largest individual cannabis long – based on the extremely favorable reward vs. risk ($1.08).

Positions: Long VRNO S