My Worst Case for the AI-Fueled Economy
Here’s what I’m most concerned about the future of our economy. Also, let’s check on Warsh’s latest speech, the market rebound and the charts.
Tweet of the Day (Part Six)
Position: None
Tweet of the Day (Part Five)
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The Market Is Undergoing a Change in Character as AI Splits Into 2 Groups
The hyperscalers pay for AI out of their own cash. The companies that borrow to build it are starting to trade like rate-sensitive stocks.
Tweet of the Day (Part Four)
Position: None
Back Shorting SPY
I am back shorting $SPY at $773.35.
Position: Short SPY (S)
I See Tail Risk to the Left and to the Right
* But more to the left!
The volatility of certain sectors demonstrated yesterday — particularly semiconductors and memory — is growing extreme and (to be honest) I am not sure what it portends for the near or intermediate term.
I do know when Micron ($MU) trades down to $858 and closes at $931 (+$17 on the day) and Sandisk ($SNDK) trades down to $1,276 and closes at $1,391 (-$12) such wide intraday swings render trading difficult to impossible.
This extreme intraday volatility has become routine in a market that now more resembles a casino than a capital market.
As would be said on “American Bandstand” — I give it a 78 I am not sure of the beat but it’s hard to dance to.
American Bandstand – Record Review Beatle Edition
This sort of extreme volatility likely indicates a lot of uncertainty and depending on your risk appetite and profile, most should pass on trading these stocks. And if you are trading the QQQs one might reconsider VAR (“value at risk’) and reducing the size of your trading (and investing) positions.
I know I am.
Position: None
Tweet of the Day (Part Trois)
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Tweet of the Day (Part Deux)
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Tweet of the Day
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