Our Small-Cap Name Is Tanking and Nobody Knows Why
One of this portfolio’s holding’s, Ocular Therapeutix ($OCUL) is selling off sharply on Monday morning. At last glance, I saw the shares down more than 25% on the day, which is putting a serious hurting on a portfolio that had finally crawled back into the green since inception this past Friday. Well, that pleasant reality was fleeting. Now we have to figure out what to do about it. It’s never pretty when one stock blows up and drags down an entire portfolio.
I see no news, which bothers me a bit. No catalysts that I know of have said or written anything. There’s nothing on the newswires that I follow. As far as AI is concerned (because I asked), Grok acknowledged the selloff, but had no idea why. Anthropic’s Claude is disputing my question altogether as Claude is not sure that OCUL is even down on Monday. So much for relying on Anthropic for anything important.
I have to be concerned that this volatility is potentially being driven by news that I have not yet seen regarding the new drug application of the firm’s AXPAXLI candidate. To this point, the readouts from clinical trials and available news had been positive, in my opinion. Well, something not so positive must be out there somewhere. An NDA filing is expected at some point in Q4 2026 and a potential launch in 2027 had hopes high. I am going to defend the position the best I can as we await news.
Portfolio News
Evolv Technologies ($EVLV)
On Monday morning, Evolv Technologies announced that the firm had been selected as the new security screening provider at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington. Climate Pledge Arena selected Evolv Express screening systems to help enhance the arrival experience for millions of guests attending games, concerts and other live events. Climate Pledge Arena is home to the NHL’s Seattle Kraken, WNBA’s Seattle Storm, the PWHL’s Seattle Torrent and a year-round schedule of other live entertainment events.
Ondas Inc ($ONDS)
On Monday morning, Ondas announced that its Cyberhawk subsidiary had secured a new three-year deal with an option for two extra years, with SSE plc’s economically-regulated networks businesses, SSEN Transmission and SSEN Distribution. This deal is for Cyberhawk to provide specialist drone inspection and surveying services across SSEN’s British electricity networks.
As part of this new agreement, Cyberhawk has been awarded Lot 2 for offshore wind turbine inspection, extending the scope of the partnership into offshore renewable energy assets. The addition broadens Cyberhawk’s role in providing for SSE’s asset base and aligns with the growing operational requirement to inspect, monitor and manage renewable generation infrastructure at increased scale.
In addition, also on Monday morning, analyst Michael Latimore of Northland Securities reiterated his “buy” rating on ONDS along with his $18 target price. Latimore is rated at four stars out of five by TipRanks. His success rate over the past two years comes to just 34%, but he has compiled an average return of 14.6% over that same time frame.
Planet Labs ($PL)
On Friday, Planet Labs announced that Pelican-12, an updated second-generation high-resolution Pelican, has arrived at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida ahead of its launch aboard the upcoming Bandwagon-5 rideshare mission with SpaceX ($SPCX).
Friday’s Intentions vs Actual Trades
Intention: Purchase 10 shares of ONDS at $7.30 (limited) or better
Actual trade: Nothing done
Intention: Purchase 15 shares of ($PSKY) at $9.75 (limited) or better
Actual trade: Nothing done
Intention: Sell 2 shares of ($RKLB) at $80.00 (limited) or better
Actual trade: Nothing done
Intention: Sell 15 shades of PL at $20.00 (limited) or better
Actual trade: Nothing done
Monday’s Intentions
Purchased 40 shares of OCUL at or close to the last sale of $7.60
Sell one OCUL December 18 $9 call for $0.75 (limited) or better
Current Positions
Long 60 shares of ($ASPN) at $5.1083. Target price: $10. Last sale: $5.13.
Long 100 shares of ($EVLV) at $5.7883. Target price: $8.50. Last sale: $4.70.
Long 110 shares of ($OCUL) at $8.6209. Target price: $14. Last sale: $7.47.
Long 250 shares of ($ONDS) at $8.0932. Target price: $12. Last sale: $7.61.
Long 100 shares of ($PL) at $20.3367. Target price: $26. Last sale: $17.07.
Long 60 shares of ($PTON) at $5.0263. Target price: $9. Last sale: $4.82.
Long 7 shares of ($RKLB) at $73.8629. Target price: $97. Last sale: $72.54.
Long 120 shares of ($SOFI) at $16.0609. Target price: $24. Last sale: $16.02.
Short one SOFI $22 November 19 call at $1.20. Last sale: $0.18.
Long 50 shares of ($SWBI) at $14.0414. Target price: $19. Last sale: $14.06.
Long 50 shares of ($VELO) at $10.265. Target price: $18. Last sale: $11.07.
Cash: $322.10.
Portfolio value: $9,493.66, -5.1% from inception on March 24.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long ASPN, EVLV, OCUL, ONDS, PL, PTON, RKLB, SOFI, SWBI and VELO.
