Heads Up on AMD?

I wrote a piece on one of my favorite holdings, Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) here at TheStreet Pro earlier this week. I still believe what I wrote. My target price is still $588. I have been looking at the chart, though and think perhaps a bit of warning (not a call to panic) may be in order. This is the chart that I gave you… 

I wrote the following: “Readers will see that AMD broke out sharply in April from the basing pattern (rectangle) of consolidation that ran from late October into late April. The shares obliterated my temporary target price of $456 as May wore on. We sold a small amount. What now? The shares look to have created a Rising Wedge pattern of bearish reversal as Relative Strength had reached technically overbought levels. The daily MACD is also ripe for some bloodletting.”     

I then added, “How severe will it be? I’ll tell you what I’m doing. I am likely to add should the stock approach the mid-May high of $470, but not before.” So, I’ve had a clue that a sell-off could be coming. Now, we’ll erase the Rising Wedge pattern, which can be bearish to begin with, and see what we can see…       

Looks a lot like a head & shoulders pattern of bearish reversal, doesn’t it. Should that pattern come to fruition, it should be noted that H&S patterns, in my non-scientific opinion, are more reliable than Rising Wedges that in theory can go on almost forever. Just some brain food for the crew here at the Diary. 


Positions: Long AMD equity.

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Posted by Stephen Guilfoyle

Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle is the founder and President of Sarge986 LLC, a family run trading operation. An NYSE floor trader for over 30 years, Guilfoyle has served as the Chief Market Economist for Stuart Frankel & Co., the U.S. Economist for Meridian Equity Partners, and as a Vice President in Block Trading and Investment Banking with Credit Suisse over the years. Guilfoyle earned his nickname “Sarge” while serving as an actual sergeant in reserve components of the U.S. Marine Corps, and U.S. Army while simultaneously working on Wall Street. He self-identifies as a day trader, long-term investor, and anything in between. He believes in removing the emotion out of the decision-making process and trusting the data. Look to Guilfoyle to prepare you for the trading day with his popular early morning Market Recon newsletter on TheStreet Pro, which provides a mix of fundamentals, technical analysis, economic commentary and trading ideas.

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