GDPNow Tracking Slowdown in Q4
Consistent with my note yesterday morning, Q3 GDP came in at 3.37%, just 0.10 pt above the Atlanta Fed GDPNow’s final 3.27% nowcast, fitting both of the tendencies I (or I guess I should say Claude) flagged:
1 – after a big drop in the final month, and
2 – in third quarters,
the actual print has usually come in close to but above GDPNow’s last read.
GDPNow has now landed within about a tenth of the actual print in five of the last nine quarters.
Turning to Q4, the Atlanta Fed has now started tracking at 3.22%:
- Consumption +1.79 pts (vs +2.55 in the final Q3 nowcast)
- Business spending +1.22 (vs +1.73)
- Inventories +0.59 (vs +1.64)
- Government +0.21 (vs +0.44)
- Residential −0.18 (vs −0.13)
- Net exports −0.41 (vs −2.95)
Note though GDPNow’s early nowcasts of a quarter have historically run high. It has started above the advance print in 34 of 57 quarters (ex-2020), by 0.40 pt on average. All three 2026 openings ended well lower:
- Q1: 3.13% → 1.99%
- Q2: 3.70% → 1.50%
- Q3: 4.95% → 3.37%
