Category: Daily Diary

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

“Even a happy life cannot be without a measure of darkness, and the word happy would lose its meaning if it were not balanced by sadness.”

“Even a happy life cannot be without a measure of darkness, and the word happy would lose its meaning if it were not balanced by sadness.”

– Carl Jung 

There is almost a gravitational pull for equities to move higher over time. Though a rise in stocks is only a coin flip on a daily basis — increasing in value about 55% of the time on all trading days — equities advance by about 70% of the time on a monthly basis and roughly 80% of the time on a rolling one-year period.

This means that calling a market top, like calling a generational market bottom (as I did in the first week of March 2009), is a low probability event that exposes one to criticism.

Nonetheless, I never shy away from public ridicule.

To Everything There Is a Season 

I have long written that owning equities creates wealth and being short equities protects capital.

The real purpose of calling a potential market top is to emphasize that the preponderance of negatives, when weighed against elevated share prices, suggests that we could be at a critical juncture for markets in which the downside risks may dwarf the upside rewards.  

So, let’s start the week with a Ludacris Forecast (of a possible market top for this year) I made on Thursday:

"Just one more thing."
– Lt. Columbo

A Ludacris Forecast

3AM: With S&P Futures +22 handles, Nasdaq Futures +145 handles

Thursday May 14, 2026 may be close to or mark the top of the Nasdaq and S and P Indices for the next six months…. $SPY $QQQ

See yesterday's 15k word…

— Dougie Kass (@DougKass) May 14, 2026

This modifies my lengthy and ursine market view delivered in Wednesday’s five-part opener, earlier last week:

The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate

The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 2)

The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 3)

The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 4)

The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 5)

Position: None

With S&P futures hitting a low of-60 handles last night, they have rallied to only -5 handles.

I am back shorting:

* $SPY $738.54

* $QQQ $709.46

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS) 

Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A has now dumped stocks for 14 consecutive quarters, the longest selling streak in its history 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/mpxjHmlNfT

— Barchart (@Barchart) May 18, 2026

Position: None

Wolf Street howls about “slugflation.”

In response to a number of emails I remain short the following high octane stocks: $AMD, $INTC, $MU, $SNDK, $NVDA and $TSLA.

Thanks so much for reading my Diary today and all week.

Enjoy the weekend.

Be safe. 

Position: Short AMD (S), INTC (S), MU (S), SNDK (VS), NVDA (S), TSLA (S)

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 9.5% above its one-month average  

– NASDAQ volume 6% above its one-month average  

– VIX index:  up 7.01% to 18.47

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map