Alright, folks, that is it for me today. I have an $AMAT earnings call to listen to and am also getting an early jump on the Pro Portfolio’s Weekly Roundup.
Thanks for letting me play once again in the sandbox. Hope to see you ‘round these parts again before too long. Dougie is back at the wheel tomorrow.
Position: TheStreet Pro Portfolio is long AMAT shares.
As you can see in the table below, we have a modicum of earnings reports after today’s close. While you may be a customer or even a fan of Boot Barn ($BOOT), odds are the market’s focus will be on April-quarter results and July-quarter guidance from Applied Materials ($AMAT).
Back in February AMAT shared it sees its semiconductor systems business up more than 20% in calendar 2026. Coming off the increased multi-year outlook from Taiwan Semi ($TSM) this morning and Cisco ($CSCO) resetting its expected 2026 orders from hyperscalers to $9 billion from $5 billion, we’ll want to see AMAT lift that “more than 20%” figure.
And an interesting story about that table. I attempted to use Microsoft Excel’s Data from Picture function three times to recreate it, but each time Excel stalled out. Using Claude, I uploaded the image and asked it to convert it to an Excel table. Done in seconds.
Just saying…
Position: The Street Pro Portfolio is long AMAT shares.
New York lawmakers are planning a new tax on New York City homes purchased in cash for at least $1 million, according to people familiar with the state budget negotiations.
The lawmakers are also considering expanding the tax to all-cash purchases over $1 million in New York, including those in the suburbs and upstate, people familiar with the matter said.
Position: None
Interactive Brokers Group ($IBKR) has launched a unified interface for trading prediction markets across three platforms — Kalshi, CME Group ($CME), and its subsidiary ForecastEx.
As it’s been explained, IBKR’s user interface aggregates similar contracts from all connected prediction market exchanges into one searchable interface, enabling users to trade contracts across all three prediction market exchanges from a single platform.
Per the company, its prediction markets will initially focus on election outcomes, climate events, and economic indicators.
Position: None
Tema, one of a growing number of ETF providers offering funds that track thematic trends, has filed with the U.S. securities regulator to roll out a new exchange-traded vehicle offering exposure to prediction market platforms and the trading infrastructure that supports them.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is already considering whether or not to approve some two dozen ETFs by other firms seeking to repackage prediction market questions into a product investors can trade as easily as a stock, offering an alternative way to play the boom, in this space.
Per the filing by Tema, it plans to invest in publicly traded companies that are either prediction market platforms or trading companies. That likely means a mix of exchanges, brokerage firms, market-making companies, and potentially financial data providers.
I’m mixed on this, but it aligns with my “Guilty Pleasure” investment theme.
Position: None
April 15th may be Tax Day but tomorrow, May 15, is the last day for companies to submit their 13F filings for the end of the March 2026 quarter.
Advanced Micro Devices’ ($AMD) 13F filing showed it owned 65,516 shares of Marvell ($MRVL) valued at roughly $6.5 million at the end of March. The filing also revealed AMD retained positions in Sanmina ($SANM), with 1.15 million shares, and ABSCI ($ABSI), where it held 5.71 million shares. In addition, AMD disclosed a new position in Xanadu Quantum Technologies ($XNDU) valued at approximately $1.5 million.
Amazon’s ($AMZN) recent filing earlier this month showed it held shares in Astera Lab ($ALAB), Beta Technologies ($BETA), Marvell ($MRVL), Nautilus Biotechnology ($NAUT), and Rivian (RIVN).
Looking at the SEC’s EDGAR website, Nvidia ($NVDA) has yet to post its 13F and in some respects that may be one of the more interesting ones.
The thing I wonder about is how many investors are tracking these public company investments when they think about their price targets and valuation framework. My gut say “probably not many” and that’s probably because against Amazon’s market cap near $2.9 trillion, its $2.66 billion investment in those five companies is peanuts.
It’s also interesting and confirming at the same time to see AMD and Amazon owning MRVL shares.
Boy I would love me some of those peanuts.
Position: The Street Pro Portfolio is long AMZN, MRVL, NVDA shares.
Cerebras Systems ($CBRS) opens at $350 after pricing IPO at $185/share.
Position: None
From TheStreet Pro’s Bob Lang, talking about the massive breadth divergence…
There are different ways to analyze market breadth, but I have found 2-3 styles that tell me a great deal about how a trend is working and when there are differences with price. Let’s remember, the price action is the king of all indicators, no matter what other indicators might be telling you. Certainly we can throw up a yellow caution flag if there are divergences between, say price and breadth. Could this be a test? Maybe, but the market needs to prove that it is not significant.
On that accord, we had a noticeable difference in new highs and new lows that is being talked about. On 5/12 and 5/13 you can see the new lows beat out new highs for the first time in weeks, a stark divergence. That explains the early weakness on Tuesday but not the strength on Wednesday. These divergences between new highs and lows are not common but when they do happen it throws a caution flag in the air. This is due to the lack of momentum in new highs, and the push by mega cap-weighted issues moving higher while smaller stocks are trailing. Overall market momentum is slowing down, even as the indices advance with new all-time highs.
The Hindenburg Omen requires this diverging characteristic among others. There is a long track record of weakness following the “Omen.” When it triggers there is an “ominous” moment of selling — usually — and markets move down helplessly. No indicator has a perfect record, though and we have had many Hindenburg Omens over the past several years that scared many investors/traders out of the markets but did not pan out. Divergences like this however are real and we should pay attention at all times.
Below is the criteria for a Hindenburg Omen to occur:
New Highs and Lows: The number of NYSE new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows must both exceed 2.2% (or 2.5%) of total NYSE issues.
Higher Highs/Lows Ratio: New highs cannot be more than twice the new lows.
Upward Trend: The NYSE index must be in an uptrend, defined as being above its 50-day (or 10-week) moving average.
Negative Sentiment: The McClellan Oscillator must be negative, indicating a decline in overall market momentum
You can see the source for that data in the chart footer, but for what it’s worth, AAA shows the national average for a gallon of gas at $4.534 as of today (May 14).
Position: None
What did Trump, Xi, and crew dine on at today’s summit?
Reportedly , Beijing roast duck, and beef ribs with dessert options for American guests that included tiramisu, fruits, and ice cream, and a “trumpet-shell shaped pastry.”
Position: … Hungry
