Category: Daily Diary

Fed Speakers

8:55 a.m.: Fed Bank of New York President Williams (Voter) gives keynote before the Reykjavík Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University, Reykjavik, Iceland (Text and moderated Q&A expected. Livestream available); 

10:15 a.m.: Fed Bank of St. Louis President Musalem (Non-Voter) speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026, Reykjavik, Iceland (Text anticipated. Moderated Q&A follows. Virtual option available); 

3:00 p.m.: Fed Bank of Richmond President Barkin (Non-Voter) participates in moderated fireside chat before the “Leading with AI: Building Trust and Powering Growth” conference hosted by the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, Washington, DC (No text. No livestream)

Economic Calendar

Positions: None.

Listening to the analyst on @CNBC making 5-10 yr forecasts of exactly when mkts will rise n exactly when theyll fall, (w 100% certainty) is just painful to listen to….most people cant predict the next 6m w certainty, how is this helpful to viewers… @DougKass

— Andrewdc208 (@andrewdc208) May 28, 2026

Position: None.

* And so do I…

“Welcome to “What Are We Doing” (WAWD), the Substack newsletter where Wall Street outsiders—Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins, famously portrayed in “The Big Short” pull back the curtain on markets and investing.”

– Danny, Vinnie and Porter

There are few smarter and contrarian investors than Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins.

Read on:

They Look at Me Like It’s Christmas and I’m Santa Claus

Position: Long MSOS (L), GLASF (VS)

This is a non-event, IMHO:

State Attorneys General File Lawsuit To Block Trump Administration’s Marijuana Rescheduling Move – Marijuana Moment

Position: None

This important post was delivered late yesterday afternoon.

I wanted to be sure you all saw it:

8 Reasons I’m Getting More Positive on Cannabis

I am growing much more optimistic on the cannabis complex.

I plan to super-size (VL) my MSOS holdings and I plan to expand individual equity positions (with emphasis on GTBIF and VRNO).

I am doing so because:

* I am extremely confident that rescheduling of both medical and adult use (recreational) will pass in the next few months.

* I am confident that uplistings will soon follow.

* More relaxed custodian rules allowing for institutional purchases of the group.

* The recent debt refinancings have eliminated the frightening debt maturity cliff that some feared.

* Industry fundamentals (volumes and pricing) have stabilized.

* Expectations are very low.

* Massive absolute and relative underperformance over the last five years has created a long runway for appreciation.

* Upside reward is probably more than 5x downside risk.

Position: Long MSOS common (L) and calls (S), VRNO (S), GTBIF (VS)    

BY Doug Kass · May 27, 2026, 4:33 PM EDT

The world's best, most enduring and most valuable companies all have one thing in common: dominant moats that secure long-term pricing power.

AI is the exact opposite

And yet, trillions of dollars in equity value now rest on the assumption that trillions of dollars in capital… https://t.co/yH2nOJVHzr

— Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) May 27, 2026

The AI numbers are starting to look very ugly.

Even under "best case" assumptions, FT's own data shows Microsoft AI ROI at -9%, Google at -15%, Meta at -28%, Oracle at -35%. Only Amazon barely comes out positive.

This is exactly why I keep comparing this to the dot-com era.… pic.twitter.com/O9Sfaya5Oa

— Yoshik (@AskYoshik) May 28, 2026

What's happening with NVIDIA?

While stock market is hitting new highs, $NVDA is down over 11% in just 2 weeks, erasing over $630,000,000,000 from its market value. pic.twitter.com/kAJtsrq7gv

— Ted (@TedPillows) May 27, 2026

This looks like the beginning of the end for OpenAI and Anthropic.

The Chinese AI wave did not just cut prices.

It destroyed the entire funding logic behind the American AI bubble.

If developers can move from thousands of dollars per month to a few dollars per week with 80% of… https://t.co/88ayXIvjnh

— Norveçli (@norveclifinance) May 27, 2026

overheard from a fortune 20 company – ceo asked for $1 billion in AI generated opex savings at the beginning of this year.

the team as a result has spent $200 million on tokens trying to achieve those savings year-to-date, with minimal results other than some modest Cx savings…

— Vivek Garipalli (@VivekGaripalli) May 27, 2026

No one knows when this ends, but anyone with even a cursory understanding of history should know exactly how this ends https://t.co/xz0DiZFute

— Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) May 27, 2026

Position: None

The AI numbers are starting to look very ugly.

Even under "best case" assumptions, FT's own data shows Microsoft AI ROI at -9%, Google at -15%, Meta at -28%, Oracle at -35%. Only Amazon barely comes out positive.

This is exactly why I keep comparing this to the dot-com era.… pic.twitter.com/O9Sfaya5Oa

— Yoshik (@AskYoshik) May 28, 2026

Position: None

The S&P Short Range Oscillator has grown more overbought at 1.62% vs. 0.74%.

Position: Short SPY (M), QQQ (M)

I am growing much more optimistic on the cannabis complex.

I plan to super-size (VL) my MSOS holdings and I plan to expand individual equity positions (with emphasis on GTBIF and VRNO).

I am doing so because:

* I am extremely confident that rescheduling of both medical and adult use (recreational) will pass in the next few months.

* I am confident that uplistings will soon follow.

* More relaxed custodian rules allowing for institutional purchases of the group.

* The recent debt refinancings have eliminated the frightening debt maturity cliff that some feared.

* Industry fundamentals (volumes and pricing) have stabilized.

* Expectations are very low.

* Massive absolute and relative underperformance over the last five years has created a long runway for appreciation.

* Upside reward is probably more than 5x downside risk.

Position: Long MSOS common (L) and calls (S), VRNO (S), GTBIF (VS)    

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None