Category: Daily Diary

Apple has published a paper with a devastating title: “The Illusion of Thinking”

It argues that AI models, no matter how brilliant they may seem, do not understand what they are doing.

They do not solve problems. They do not reason. They merely generate text word by word,… pic.twitter.com/dbiYJ6gv7O

— How To AI (@HowToAI_) May 20, 2026

Position: None

On the rally back to flat (on futures) I have moved from VS to S in my index shorts.

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S) 

When does circular financing stop? Similar to a Ponzi Scheme, when cash outflows become greater than inflows. In this last quarter, $NVDA cash grew by only ~$600, and now ~95% of its operating cash flow is absorbed by circular financing vs ~57% one year ago https://t.co/4SH0Etwfcg pic.twitter.com/r6QZ0HbyHY

— JustDario (@DarioCpx) May 21, 2026

Position: None

I am adding to my very small index shorts:

* $SPY  $741.88

* $QQQ $713.33

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)

The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains in oversold territory at -1.66% vs. -2.08%.

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)

As of 4:23 PM:

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 3% above its one-month average 
– NASDAQ volume 4% above its one-month average
– VIX index: down 3.82% to 17.37

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

Earnings Reporters After Close Wednesday 

Earnings Reporters Before Open Thursday

Position: None

Today I learned on @HalftimeReport that valuations no longer matter. CAPE, Buffett Indicator, Price to Sales… fuhgetaboutit!
The absence of discourse, debate and dissension is deafening.
The bullish herd of "first level thinkers" and consensus views are growing ever more…

— Dougie Kass (@DougKass) May 20, 2026

Position: Short JOET (VS)

I’m adding to $GRNY at $26.82 and $JOET at $42.98 shorts now.

Position: Short GRNY (VS), JOET (VS)