Machines Gone Wild
Some speculation in social media that a draft for peace is imminent.
With S&P cash now +12 handles I am back re-shorting the indices:
* $SPY $742.80
* $QQQ $714.89
Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)
SpaceX Tweet of the Day
Position: None
Tweet of the Day (Part 6)
Position: None
Nvidia Tweet of the Day
* For emphasis…
Position: None
Things I Did Today
Here are today’s things:
* I sold indices short: $SPY at $741.71 and $QQQ at $713.01.
* I covered indices short: SPY at $738.68 and QQQ at $709.56.
* I added to $MSOS at $4.44, $CURLF at $3.30, $GTBIF at $7.19, and $VRNO at $1.08 — in the cannabis space.
* I shorted more $MS at $199.01.
* I shorted more $JOET at $43.06.
Position: Long MSOS (M), CURLF (VS), VRNO (S), GTBIF (VS); Short MS (S), JOET (VS)
Late Morning Market Stats
Volume
– NYSE volume11% below its one-month average
– NASDAQ volume 5% below its one-month average
– VIX index: down 0.52% to 17.35
Breadth
S&P 500 Sectors
% Movers
Nasdaq 100 Heat Map
Position: None
Abie From Brooklyn Calls for a Top in Nvidia’s Shares
From Abie from Brooklyn:
Over the last decade Nvidia’s shares have scaled Mr. Everest. But no one lives there and the descent may now be beginning.
One of the most difficult things to ascertain in markets is when the moment at top is reached. In the cases of spectacular rises, many are usually watching and a brave (foolhardy?) few are trying to identify the top before it happens.
Few efforts have been more intense than this same effort in the case of NVDA. It is often said that tops in such spectacular arcs are identifiable only afterwards in hindsight.
But i believe the top in NVDA could now be signaled by the combination of the stock’s price response in the market when earnings were released last night and the details of the company’s cash generation and use.
The stock price response to the report could not have been more subdued. A nominal wiggle up and down around the last price and now a price drop. The cash from operations part of the release offered no reason for any upside either…just a requirement that the bald facts of it – that the company has been using every last dollar of cash left over from actual operations to continue to finance the circular flows supporting revenues – all in the service of finally providing NO FURTHER SURPRISES.
And that is what moonshot tops look like. NO FURTHER UPSIDE SURPRISES!!
After every possible penny has been used to inflate results and still no further surprise beyond the most bullish expectations have already driven the stock to all time highs, then the rocket engines have exhausted their fuel, the momentum has reached its peak and the inevitable rollover must now be discounted in the market. At the stratospheric projections of future positive surprises that are built into the stock, a no-meaningful surprise report and reaction is THE time to leave the ship in the lifeboat.
Expect any further new high producing manipulations to be used by the smartest with the largest positions to begin manning the lifeboats and dropping off into the icy seas that may await this modern Titanic.
Position: None
Boockvar on Manufacturing and Precautionary Stock Building
From Peter Boockvar:
US mfr’g benefiting again from ‘precautionary stock building’
After the PMI’s seen abroad today, manufacturing was good in the US in May too with the S&P Global PMI rising to 55.3 from 54.5 but again, “an accompanying marked influx of new orders for goods in part again reflected precautionary stock building by clients. Order book growth in manufacturing was also purely domestically driven, with goods exports falling again.”
With prices paid, “Manufacturing input costs registered their largest monthly increase since June 2022.” With respect to prices received, “Goods prices showed a particularly marked rise, the rate of increase hitting the highest since September 2022.”
Employment benefited from the rise in order rates, “manufacturing payrolls showed the largest rise for 11 months as factories raised headcounts to meet the recent upturn in orders.”
As the services piece of this PMI is missing the key sectors of retail/wholesale trade and construction, quotes from S&P Global on services is not complete so we’ll wait to see the full coverage from ISM.
Positions: None.
Tweet of the Day (Part 5)
Positions: None.