Category: Daily Diary

These year-end forecasts have little value.

They all typically start with a standard +8% (or so) yearly forecasted return:

🇺🇸 S&P 500

Goldman Sachs still sees the S&P 500 climbing to 8,000 by year-end, 8,300 in six months and 8,700 within a year. Earnings growth, not higher valuations, is expected to drive the next leg higher
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYWVX@GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #sp500 #stocks #equity pic.twitter.com/33fKieBwiM

— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) October 13, 2026

They are not worth the paper they are written on, imho. 

Position: None

🇺🇸 S&P 500

The S&P 500 is setting record highs, but market breadth is still deteriorating. The median stock now trades 16% below its peak, the weakest breadth since the dot-com bubble. Fewer stocks are joining the rally
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYWVX

h/t @dailychartbook $spx #spx pic.twitter.com/ewygem5nRP

— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) October 13, 2026

Position: None

Finding My Way Through An Imperfect Journey

Position: None 

* Especially after the large increase (since 2020) of cumulative or “stacked inflation”…

It's going to be a long-time before the long-term rate of inflation starts to come down (in lieu of some sort of major deflationary shock).

And that could be a problem for those expecting a drop in bond yields… pic.twitter.com/5xagZos4cH

— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) October 13, 2026

Position: None

As I noted late yesterday, the S&P Short Range Oscillator, which was -5 to -6 about 10 days ago (a deep oversold) is now close to neutral at -0.66% (vs. -1.96% a day earlier). 

Position: None

Just what I thought. The S&P Short Range Oscillator slipped to -0.66% — that’s virtually neutral after being -6% a week or so ago.

Position: None

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 24% below its one-month average 

– NASDAQ volume 24% below its one-month average 

– VIX index:  up 2.49% to 15.21

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Heat Maps

Position: None

A subscriber sent me this and I will try to answer it tomorrow morning:

Dougie,

Lots of talk about the extraordinary rate of EPS growth in the S&P 500 again.

Here is data I would love to see.  Use last quarter reported EPS, since it is already in the books:

-Remove ALL 1x EPS benefits from the markups of holdings in Anthropic (and Open AI or anything else of that ilk).  This is very reasonable to do.  This does not get a multiple.  At best, it should be valued at book value, and frankly a 20% discount to book value, which is the typical tax on illiquid investments not under the control of the stockholder.

-Then back out the EPS growth from just two companies, MU and NVDA.  Just 2.  What was S&P EPS growth net of backing those two companies out (cap weighted earnings growth the same way EPS growth is being reported), and how does it compare with the aggregate number for EPS growth that people were using?

-Then do the same thing, and back out the next 5 largest contributors as well.  Tell me how S&P earnings growth looked without the benefit of the Anthropic stock markups being put into earnings, and what it was for the remaining 493 companies, and how that compares to the aggregate growth that was reported?

Would love to see how these things look side by side….

Stay tuned!

Position: None