Charting the Premarket Percent Movers
Treasury Auctions, Fed Lineup, Econ Calendar
Treasury Auctions
11:00 a.m.: Treasury Announces a 4, 8 and 17 Week Bill Auction;
11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $95B 6-Week Bill Auction;
1:00 p.m.: Treasury hosts a $69B 2-Year Note Auction;
2:00 p.m.: Treasury buyback (liq support)
Fed Speakers:
8:00 a.m.: Fed Bank of Richmond President Barkin (Non-Voter) delivers most recent speech, “The Mysterious U.S. Economy” before the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce “Eggs & Issues” event, in Blacksburg, VA;
4:00 p.m.: Fed Bank of Richmond President Barkin (Non-Voter) repeats speech, “The Mysterious U.S. Economy” before the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance, Charlotte, NC
Economic Calendar
Shorted More SPY
I shorted more $SPY (730 AM) at $767.64.
But still very small.
Position: Short SPY (VS)
This ‘Bears’ Repeating
From late yesterday afternoon:
Revisiting the Top and a Growing List of Risks
“If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason.”
– Jack Handey
I thought quite a lot about the markets over the weekend and I revisited my mid-August column “But If, Baby, I’m The Bottom… You’re The Top!“
I concluded then and I believe stronger now, in light of the events of the last two weeks (in AI, market structure, valuation, geopolitical, interest rates, inflation, deficit/debtload, etc.) the following:
* Upside reward is dwarfed by downside risk.
* Having an outsized or even an in-line long exposure entails not only a great deal of risk — but is literally gambling (due to the risks of an uber leveraged market structure — in products and strategies).
* In general, market participants are unduly optimistic and positioned very long with limited cash reserves (as a percentage of the portfolio).
* The singular notion that since S&P EPS growth will be robust this year (+20%) so equities are undervalued is challenged by the reality of history (I didn’t get to it today but will tomorrow!).
Position: None
Programming Note
I will be travelling to another funeral service early this afternoon.
I will return on Thursday morning.
Position: None
Tweet of the Day
Position: None
Read This Tweet… Carefully
“The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left. Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination…If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isnt a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit.”
– Stanley Druckenmiller
Position: None
Oscillator Is Slightly Overbought
The S&P Short Range Oscillator is slightly overbought at 0.20% vs. -0.29%.
Position: Short SPY (VS)
Monday’s After-Hours Advancers and Decliners
After-Hours % Advancers
After-Hours % Decliners
Position: None