That’s a Wrap!

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 14, 2026

The major equity indices closed modestly lower on Friday, one day after the S&P 500 notched a fresh record high close. The S&P 500 gave up 0.1% on the session while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2%. Six of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs finished higher, led by Energy ($XLE). Healthcare ($XLV) was the weakest of these funds.

Treasury yields shifted higher as bond traders made sales. The U.S. 10-year note paid 4.69% (+4 BPS) by day’s end while the two-year note paid 4.17% (+2 BPS). Stocks started out the day on strength after July U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month to $763.6 billion. This was considerably softer than expected and marked the largest one months drop for the series in more than a year.

Sandisk ($SNDK) was the star of the S&P 500, gaining 7.4% on continued strength one day after the firm’s investor day, where management outlined strong long-term growth and margin targets for the business. Applied Materials ($AMAT) at -5.1% for the day was a laggard, but Broadcom ($AVGO) led the way lower at -5.9%. 

OK, gang. It’s Friday night. I need a break. I bet you do, too. With a little luck and the blessings of a merciful God, Dougie should be back at the helm on Monday. May all of you have a safe and enjoyable weekend. Sarge out. 

Positions: Long SNDK equity. 

Austan Goolsbee

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 14, 2026

From TipRanks:

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that recent indications of cooling inflation are encouraging. However, he would like to see additional evidence in the coming months that price pressures are continuing to ease toward the central bank’s 2% target.

“If we get three, four months in a row like what we saw in June, I will be feeling much better that we are on path back to 2%,” he told Bloomberg. Earlier this week, the July CPI showed 3.4% annual growth, down from 3.5% in June.

Goolsbee Cautious on Inflation Ahead of Interest Rate Decision

Goolsbee added that inflation remaining above the Fed’s target for over five years has made him cautious about making quick changes to monetary policy. Once inflation sets in, “it can be painful and hard to get rid of,” he said. Meanwhile, Goolsbee added that economic growth and the labor market are both “stable.”

The Fed will meet for its next interest rate decision on September 16. The central bank is expected to hold rates steady with 67.4% odds, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At the same time, a 25-bp hike is still possible with 32.6% odds.

Positions: None.

Baseball Trivia Answer

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 14, 2026

Question

Since integration (1947), there have only been six seasons where an MLB starting pitcher threw 30 or more complete games in a season. Robin Roberts of the Philadelphia Phillies did it twice in the early 1950s. The other four seasons (four different pitchers) all occurred between 1968 and 1975. Name those four hurlers. 

Answer

1968: Juan Marichal of the SF Giants went 26-9 with a 2.43 ERA, completing 30 of 38 starts.

1971: Fergie Jenkins of the Chi Cubs went 24-13 with a 2.77 ERA, completing 30 of 41 starts.

1972: Steve Carlton of the Pha Phillies went 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA, completing 30 of 41 starts.

1975: Catfish Hunter of the NY Yankees went 23-14 with a 2.58 ERA, completing 30 of 39 starts.

Positions: None.

The Week Ahead

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 14, 2026

From TipRanks:

Earnings season is set to continue next week with several key retailers on deck. Furthermore, the Fed will release its minutes from the July 28 to 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Let’s take a look at next week’s key events:

Stock Market Earnings Next Week

Economic Data Next Week

Positions: None.


Baseball Trivia!

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 14, 2026

Since integration (1947), there have only been six seasons where an MLB starting pitcher threw 30 or more complete games in a season. Robin Roberts of the Philadelphia Phillies did it twice in the early 1950s. The other four seasons (four different pitchers) all occurred between 1968 and 1975. Name those four hurlers.

Positions: None.

Looking into ASTS

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 14, 2026

Earlier this week, AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) released the firm’s second quarter financial results. For the period ended June 30, AST SpaceMobile posted a GAAP EPS of -$0.77 on revenue of $31.52 million. These top- and bottom-line results both fell well short of Wall Street’s expectations. Despite the fact that the sales print reflected annual growth of 2,617%. Hmm…

So, why am I in the stock? Three reasons:

1) The firm signed partnerships with over 60 MNO partners globally who collectively cover over 3 billion subscribers.
2) The firm’s order backlog increased to approximately $1.3 billion in aggregate contracted revenue including both commercial partners and contracts awarded by the U.S. government. 
3) During the call, CFO Andrew Johnson said, “We remain on track to meet our full year 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million.” That keeps the midpoint of the range above the $169 million that Wall Street had in mind.

The Chart

Readers will see that ASTS came into this year riding the first peak of what became a double-top pattern of bearish reversal. That setup worked well. Readers will then note that coming out of that setup, as the stock sold off through June and July, the shares developed a falling wedge of bullish reversal. This appears to be working as well. The stock broke out from that closing wedge in late July, ahead of the numbers.

The stock has since retaken its 21-day EMA (green line), engaging the swing crowd. The last sale now stands in between that line and its 50-day SMA which has acted as resistance. Investors need to see the stock make a run at both that blue line and the 200-day SMA as they are not that far apart and that would all but ensure increased participation by professional managers.

Moving on to the indicators, relative strength is looking rather non-committal. However, the daily MACD is looking much better than it has. The histogram of the nine-day EMA is now in positive territory which is a bullish signal. In addition, the 12-day EMA has overtaken the 26-day EMA, which is also bullish. Both of those lines appear to be moving toward the zero-bound. Should these two lines move into positive territory together, the bullish signaling would then be amplified. I think $101 is realistic. 

Positions: Long ASTS equity. 

We Have a Runner!

Avatar photo Stephen Guilfoyle on August 14, 2026

Sandisk ($SNDK) is running wild in response to the firm’s investor day on Thursday.

While unhappy that we sold most of our long position here at the Sarge-folio, we can take solace in the fact that at least we did not sell it all and that we did add an odd lot to the odd lot that we had left going into the event. Do we even have a round lot in inventory? Rather not talk about it.

For a stock that we had traded masterfully through the spring, we sure have managed to turn a grand slam into a triple. Still, we could have missed the memory/storage trade of 2026 and we did not. That said, we have a broken pattern.

Readers will see that our head-and-shoulders pattern has gone the way of the dinosaur, the blacksmith and the NYSE floor trader. The shares took back their 21-day SMA on Thursday and are trying to take back their 50-day SMA this morning. Should this happen, as the swing crowd is already on board, the pros will have no choice but to increase long side exposure further. That blue line is the pivot. Both relative strength and the daily MACD are wearing their rally cpas as well. Take that blur line and a target price of $2,155 is very realistic. 

Positions: Long SNDK equity.