Chart of the Day
* And second level thinking…
Positions: None.
My GRNY Short and Bitcoin
I am clueless and not an authority about the price of bitcoin but this drop (last night) was abrupt:
I have been adding to my @GRNY short – which has a lot of crypto exposure.
Positions: Short GRNY M
Diesel Prices Continue North
In my consumer is spent up and not pent up series I have discussed the impending weakness in the consumer — sticky and cumulative inflation (since 2020), a five month decline in real wages, a drawdown in the savings rate and the weakness in housing prices.
Should energy prices continue their ascent I am fearful of an abrupt drop in personal consumption.
Moreover, the price of oil is likely to be a meaningful political issue in the mid terms.
Positions: None.
The Stench of Bad Breadth
I have been recently highlighting the deterioration in market breadth.
The stench of bad breadth was conspicuous yesterday:
For now, the S&P and the Nasdaq don’t care that the Russell isn’t crowing.
My guess/bet is that this is not a permanent condition.
Position: Short SPY (M), QQQ (M)
El-Erian on the Global Rise in Interest Rates
The rise in interest rates is a global phenomenon which few are focused on.
Again, today, rates are on the rise:
Many in the Comments section are asking about buying Treasuries now.
However, given the stickiness of inflation, the continued mad rush of the AI spend, a sovereign retreat away from our Treasuries from non-U.S. nations (for political and non-political reasons), the (still) lack of fiscal discipline in Washington D.C. and the massive supply of Treasury and (AI) related corporate offerings, I am not there yet, even as the real interest rate expands.
Stay tuned on this…
Position: None
If They Build It, Will They Come?
* Not necessarily…
“If you build it, he will come.”
– Ray Kinsella, Field of Dreams
If You Build It, He Will Come – Field of Dreams (1/9) Movie CLIP (1989) HD – YouTube
Position: None
Market Musings
* I continue to be short in a bull market…
Once again, I thought underneath the hood there was less than meet’s the eye.
Though the averages showed a robust gain, Nasdaq breadth was negative:
And, Nvidia ($NVDA), which was +$5 per share on the day at its high, basically closed flat.
Treasuries were modestly higher but it looked more like a dead-cat bounce than a reversal to lower yields. This morning $TLT is -$0.40, so Tuesday’s slightly lower bond yields have been reversed.
“Forward thinking” financials continued to show no spark.
Finally, despite the record high in the indices, there were twice as many lows as highs on the NYSE:
We moved from small to medium-sized short the indices on yesterday’s market advance.
Position: Short SPY (M), QQQ (M)
Investors Buy High
Position: None
Howling About Falling Listing Prices for Homes
Wolf Street howls about the drop in home listing prices.
Position: None
Programming Note
I am in route to NYC to take a family member to have a checkup after surgery.
I will be operating on a laptop today so my posts will be shorter and less frequent.
Position: None