Author: Doug Kass

There it is folks:

Interest rate futures now see a BASE CASE of the next Fed move being a rate HIKE.

In fact, the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates before July 2027 are a mere 1%.

As inflation hits its highest level since 2023, the Fed is left with no option.

All as… pic.twitter.com/cKniabwhcC

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 14, 2026

Position: None

It's like clockwork.

The 10Y Note Yield is now above 4.50% for the first time since June 2025.

This is the same level that resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025.

Meanwhile, rate HIKES are now the base case for the Fed's expected next move.

As a… pic.twitter.com/jYbQ4Pv2Jr

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 15, 2026

Position: None

"Just one more thing."
– Lt. Columbo

A Ludacris Forecast

3AM: With S&P Futures +22 handles, Nasdaq Futures +145 handles

Thursday May 14, 2026 may be close to or mark the top of the Nasdaq and S and P Indices for the next six months…. $SPY $QQQ

See yesterday's 15k word…

— Dougie Kass (@DougKass) May 14, 2026

Position: None

* Added to index shorts: $SPY at $747.51 and $QQQ at $719.69

* Shorted $AMD at $448.03, $INTC at $116.31, $MU at $786.10, $NVDA at $236.81, $SNDK at $1,415 and $TSLA at $445.76.

* Added to these longs: $PEP at $148.63, $PG at $142.66 and $KMB at $96.94.

Position: Long PEP (S), PG (S), KMB (S); Short SPY (S), QQQ (S), AMD (S), INTC (S), MU (S), NVDA (S), SNDK (S), TSLA (S)

I have moved from small to very small in the indices.

With S&P futures -77 handles I have covered some:

* $SPY $740.98

* $QQQ $709.65

I plan to re-short strength.

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)

The S&P Short Range Oscillator is now in neutral at 0.09% vs. 1.05%. 

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 9% above its one-month average

– NASDAQ volume 7% above its one-month average

– VIX index: down 0.61% to 17.88

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

I have re-shorted Tesla $TSLA at $444.95.

Position: Short TSLA (VS)

Out here in the fields
I fight for my meals
I get my back into my living
I don’t need to fight
To prove I’m right
No I don’t need to be forgiven
No no no no no no no Don’t cry
Don’t raise your eye
It’s only teenage wasteland

– The Who, Baba O’Riley  Teenage Wasteland by The Who

I added to PepsiCo $PEP at $149.47 and $PG at $142.22 longs this afternoon.

Position: Long PEP (S), PG (S)