ETF Action in the A.M.
Positions: None.
Charting the Premarket Percent Movers
Positions: None.
What Has Been Achieved Since The Iranian Conflict Started?
* The rally in equities seems unjustified…
The S&P Index is now more than +7% above the level the day before the start of the Iranian conflict in late February.
The advance doesn’t make sense to me. Iran remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz, no matter what the parties agree to. Iran can easily reimpose a block as soon as the American blockade ends.
The U.S. has spent over $30 billion — eroding our already burgeoning budget — and we have sharply reduced our inventory of critical weapons systems. Arguably our President looks weak with his endless Taco behavior and boasts followed by empty threats.
Our country has alienated our European allies and weakened NATO, who Pres. Trump blasts them with never ending tariffs. He continues to threaten our allies and he is then surprised they refuse to provide aid and support when requested.
Meanwhile, the Gulf allies realize that the American umbrella doesn’t protect them and will likely force them to reconcile in some way with Iran. The market structure is breaking and destabilized with extreme volatility forming the investment background of structural instability (see my earlier post Structural Instability. )
Structural Instability
Anyone who has observed the market’s spectacular intraday volatility over the last four trading sessions should realize that something is amiss. The market is not behaving normally — it seems destabilized.
* Is it simply an overvalued market that is in the process of correcting?
* Is it an overvalued and concentrated market led by large-cap technology that is rotating into new leadership?
* Is it a signal that the AI revolution might face growing fundamental headwinds?
* Is the proliferation of leveraged ETFs and the growing acceptance of the market as a casino (with the ubiquitous presence of 0DTE options) undermining market stability, acting like an infant splashing around in a bathtub (violently moving from side to side)?
* Is it the consequences of the evolution of market structure (the tail wagging the dog), in which passive products and strategies dominate the investment landscape?
* Or, have the machines and algos “gone wild” (in dealing with a potential inflection point or price momentum change)?
To me, its all of the above — some of each.
We are likely entering a slippery slope — great for opportunistic traders, lousy for the buy-and-hold crowd.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jun 10, 2026, 9:45 AM EDT
The investing public has decided the best option available to them is stocks. A change in the bullish behavior (of buying every dip) might require a change in the perception of optimistic economic and profit growth (which I believe is closer than the consensus thinks).
As noted previously, I call on Warren Buffett’s famous “God’s Plan” thoughts and words delivered in November, 1999 near the end of the dot.com boom:
FortuneMagazine.pdf november 1999 interview
Positions: None.
Early Morning Trading
Dougie Kass
Added to Index shorts at 540AM
SPY $743.19
QQQ $721.05
Position: None
Oscillator Still in Neutral
The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains in neutral at -0.10 vs. -0.61.
Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)
SpaceX Tweets of the Day
Position: None
Some Advice on the SpaceX IPO From The Oracle of Omaha
* This morning SpaceX launches a $75 billion initial public offering, valuing the company at nearly $1.8 trillion
* Discussions of the IPO today will consume the business media as guests deliver plenty of hype and similar/redundant “talking points” but provide little substance — full of sound and fury but signifying nothing…
Over history Warren Buffett has expressed skepticism about initial public offerings.
To Warren it was unlikely that the best bargain was a brand new IPO that is heavily marketed and carries ridiculously high commissions.
Perhaps Warren Buffett’s most famous quote regarding IPOs revolves around the notion that an IPO is priced at a time of the seller’s choosing while being actively promoted by both insiders (to maximize their profits) and by Wall Street (who exist to sell products):
“An IPO is like a negotiated transaction – the seller chooses when to come public – and it’s unlikely to be a time that’s favorable to you.”
He compared IPOs to buying lottery tickets, saying:
“People win lotteries every day… You don’t want to get into a stupid game just because it’s available.”
He further said:
“The idea that a newly issued security (IPO)—brought to market at a time of the seller’s choosing and surrounded by massive hype—is the single best bargain among thousands of global businesses is absolute nonsense.
When an offering carries a ridiculous 7% commission just to incentivize salespeople, it simply cannot be the most attractive investment available.
While people easily get caught up in the excitement of a new launch, look at the reality: you have thousands of existing public companies whose prices are set by a natural auction market, free from aggressive promotion or hidden fees.
It makes no sense to buy a security precisely when an insider decides the timing is perfect to sell. Frankly, it isn’t worth spending five seconds thinking about IPOs.”
Here are some of my specific views of the SpaceX IPO (hint: we are avoiding the offering and currently considering shorting the shares on strength in the aftermarket):
Finally, from my Daily Diary on Wednesday:
Well Go On and Read It… The SpaceX Prospectus
The Marx Brothers respond:
BY Doug Kass · Jun 10, 2026, 7:15 AM EDT
Position: None
Thursday’s After-Hours Advancers and Decliners
After-Hours % Advancers
After-Hours % Decliners
Position: None
Thursday’s Closing Market Data
Closing Volume
– NYSE volume 1% above its one-month average
– NASDAQ volume flat to its one-month average
– VIX index: down 11.97% to 19.56
Breadth
S&P 500 Sectors
% Movers
Nasdaq 100 Heat Map
Closing S&P 500 Heat Map
Position: None
Until Tomorrow
I have to leave early for a medical issue for a member of my family.
Back in the morning.
Position: None