The S&P Short Range Oscillator moved a bit more overbought to 0.80% vs. 0.48%.
I traded (very small) $SPY and $QQQ on the short side last night (when S&P futures rose by +15 handles and Nasdaq was +130 handles) and took a very small gain on the cover, as I enjoyed and marveled at the Milwaukee Brewers World Series win in game three.
Position: None
Closing Volume
– NYSE volume 20% above its one-month average
– NASDAQ volume 6% below its one-month average
– VIX index: down 4.94% to 18.49
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I have a lengthy research call beginning at 4 PM today.
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Wolf Street howls about who is the “smart money” in the U.S. housing market.
Position: None
I am sure a lot will be learned about the Anthropic S-1 over the next few days.
But among the most (worrisome) big-picture issues is the amount of insider selling the IPO allows for (including right at the time of the IPO) without a lockup.
If the insiders and investors who know the most about the company are in a rush to sell, why would anyone be in a rush to buy?
This reminds me of the CoreWeave ($CRWV) executive who claimed that the selling in CRWV’s shares was irrational, while he and every other member of senior management had sold hand over fist.
The whole structure, governance, financials, opacity, selling, valuation, the whole deal just smacks of hubris and arrogance. There is an underlying expectation that the greater fools continue to line up, nod in bovine agreement, and eat the slop they are fed by the VCs et al:
Oh in there is this line in there too. Just classic:
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“Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.”
– Chevy Chase, Saturday Night Live
SNL Weekend Update: Generalissimo Francisco Franco
Despite protestations from most of the panelists and guests on the Shows… I have said/written to avoid Netflix ($NFLX) at over $100 (in April 2026), at $85 (in June 2026) and again last week at over $70.
And I will say it again, today — at $63.
I still would not bottom fish in Netflix’s shares.
From last week:
My View on Netflix
Repeating for emphasis, I would not bottom fish in Netflix (NFLX).
I expect in line-to-better 2Q2026 results but a possible lower forward guidance as margins are pressured.
From last month:
Netflix Is Too Low to Short and Too High to Buy
I would continue to avoid buying (and “bottom fishing”) in Netflix (NFLX) for the reasons I have previously mentioned:
* Netflix has nearly saturated the domestic market (as well as many other developed countries). These markets are significantly more profitable than the non developed arena.
* Future Netflix sales/profit growth will come from developing country markets that provide substantially less revenue (and income) per subscriber.
* Netflix’s original content programming has been unspectacular over the last 12 months (or more) — and existing content has suffered.
In the past I have been short NFLX, but it is no longer priced as an attractive short.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Sep 22, 2026, 1:50 PM EDT
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BY Doug Kass · Oct 20, 2026, 4:09 PM EDT
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