Author: Doug Kass

mikash999

Doug, if the Fed stands pat today as you expect, could that initially encourage an equity rally even as it further undermines the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility? Or, with a hold already largely priced in, would the greater risk be a bond-market selloff and higher long-term yields that ultimately pressure stocks? Curious which reaction you think would dominate—and whether the initial response would hold.

dennissong

I’ve been thinking this through as well.   If it’s priced in, why would the bond market selloff?  Would that surprise anyone if they held? So it should come down to presser.   Feeling like the battle of the wits here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EkBuKQEkio

Dougie Kass

i have no clue.

I think no increase is built into prices and the after hours EPS releases from two hyperscalers holds more weight than the Fed. 

Iran’s foreign minister is saying that his country’s armed forces are fully prepared to defend Iran.

They continue to give diplomacy a chance to succeed (likely the reason for the little rally in the last few minutes).

Position: None 

Some deep thoughts from TKF:

TKF

Always look forward to “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know”.

“More Tales Tales From Nvidia” is valuable…and fun. The financial gymnastics are bubblicious. It’s a strong thesis you are sussing out…building a mosaic. I subscribe for your thoughts and process…your experience.

If Michael Burry and Steve Eisman had written continuous articles before the 2008 GFC they would have been valuable. An increasing percentage of readers would have seen cracks in the dam before it broke.

More importantly those readers would have been able to proactively play out scenarios for action…watch for confirming evidence scenario is occurring, avoid companies in the blast zone, secondary affects, and figure out if some companies could benefit. If nothing else, you could do mental gymnastics to see if you agree or disagree.

Investing/trading is all about possible scenarios.

Everyone’s experience/gut feels guides them to situations…large and small…playable and untradable.

I follow different traders/investors to learn and get ideas. I disagree with some, don’t understand some, and change my mind on some. Very few lead to trades…but they spur new thinking/understanding and add color to my mosaic.

Position: None

I don’t expect any action by the Fed today considering:

* The November midterm election is less than a week away. The Fed probably does not want to appear political in any way.

* As a large portion of the inflation threat relates to energy, I suspect many of the Fed voters view the rise as transitory.

Position: None 

Since 2010, the average drawdown in the first 12 months of the 20 largest IPOs is -60%!

Position: None

Ed Yardeni is bullish:

Ed Yardeni:
"When we lowered S&P 500 year-end target a month ago, it had nothing to do with the market’s fundamental underpinnings. Our concerns remain valuation related in light of rising uncertainties in the investment backdrop. But don’t be tricked by scary surprises that send…

— David Kass (@DrDavidKass) October 28, 2026

Position: None