A Possible 2026 Market Top May Have Occurred on Thursday
“Even a happy life cannot be without a measure of darkness, and the word happy would lose its meaning if it were not balanced by sadness.”
“Even a happy life cannot be without a measure of darkness, and the word happy would lose its meaning if it were not balanced by sadness.”
– Carl Jung
There is almost a gravitational pull for equities to move higher over time. Though a rise in stocks is only a coin flip on a daily basis — increasing in value about 55% of the time on all trading days — equities advance by about 70% of the time on a monthly basis and roughly 80% of the time on a rolling one-year period.
This means that calling a market top, like calling a generational market bottom (as I did in the first week of March 2009), is a low probability event that exposes one to criticism.
Nonetheless, I never shy away from public ridicule.
To Everything There Is a Season
I have long written that owning equities creates wealth and being short equities protects capital.
The real purpose of calling a potential market top is to emphasize that the preponderance of negatives, when weighed against elevated share prices, suggests that we could be at a critical juncture for markets in which the downside risks may dwarf the upside rewards.
So, let’s start the week with a Ludacris Forecast (of a possible market top for this year) I made on Thursday:
This modifies my lengthy and ursine market view delivered in Wednesday’s five-part opener, earlier last week:
The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate
The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 2)
The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 3)
The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 4)
The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 5)
Position: None
