That’s All There Is
And when I was twelve years old
My daddy took me to the circus
The greatest show on Earth
There were clowns and elephants, dancing bears
And a beautiful lady in pink
Tights flew high above our heads
And as I sat there watching
I had the feeling that something was missing
I don’t know what, but
When it was over
I said to myself
Is that all there is to the circus?
– Peggy Lee, Is That All There Is? Peggy Lee — Is That All There Is? 1969
Yesterday we all saw a constant parade of interviews on Fin TV with interested (and biased) SpaceX ($SPCX) parties (founders, long-time private market investors, board members, management and those that got stock in the IPO – even a few Wall Street firms that were launching leveraged ETFs on SpaceX). To a person they waxed enthusiastically (but vaguely with glittering generalities) about the almost insane TAM (total addressable markets) that the company faces.
To Mars and beyond…. was the prevailing mantra.
There was not one interview with a skeptical analyst/observer. Key man risk, execution risk, etc. were glossed over.
But there is another thing that was not emphasized… that is a key reason why the shares are currently trading more than 50% higher than the IPO price of $135/share.
I am sorry to break this news to the business media and to investors/traders but one of the most important reasons that SpaceX is trading anywhere near its current level is that the float is extremely small — in absolute terms and relative to the index inclusions, volume of options trading, hype and other choreography.
Is that all there is
Is that all there is?
If that’s all there is my friends
Then let’s keep dancing
Let’s break out the booze and have a ball
If that’s all there is
Position: Short SPCX (VS)
