Boockvar on Declining Consumer Confidence
The following is from Peter Boockvar:
Consumer confidence slips and the difference of whether one owns assets or not
The preliminary October UoM consumer confidence index fell to 46.3 from 48.1. That was 1.3 pts below expectations and just off the record low. All of the drop was in the Current Conditions component which fell by 6.2 pts while Expectations gained 1 pt. One year inflation expectations ticked up a tenth from September to 4.7% while the 5-10 yr outlook was 3.5%, also up one tenth. Of note, more consumers are expecting lower gasoline prices in the coming 12 months relative to last month and we of course hope they are right.
After falling by 5 pts in September, employment expectations rose by 4 pts and the income component improved as well. The bright spot within the data.
Spending intentions on big ticket items further weakened. In particular, those who think it’s a good time to buy a home fell to within one point of a record low, not surprisingly and I need to elaborate on this.
I hear from some boomers who tell me how they had a double digit mortgage rate back in the day and that a 7.5% rate now should not be alarming. My push back is that back then, the median home price relative to the median income was about 3.5x. Today is around 5x. That is 43% more. Thus, just comparing one’s mortgage rate with other time periods is NOT apples to apples.
Intentions to buy a major household item fell to a record low dating back to 1978. As for the mood towards buying the other big ticket thing, a car, it fell by 3 pts to 41 but a bit above the recent lows.
The line item in the report that helps to explain the dour consumer mood was the question of ‘do you expect higher REAL income in coming 5 years’. Just 23% said yes, one point off a record low dating back to when it was first asked in 1998.
Adding commentary to this from the UoM, “Overall, sentiment for lower-income consumers and those with smaller stock portfolios dropped steeply this month, groups that have fewer resources to weather increases in prices. Frustration over cost-of-living continues to mount, as consumers across the political spectrum believe that the trajectory of the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year.”
And more to this impact of whether one owns assets or not, “Sentiment among low-wealth consumers—non-stockowners along with those with the smallest stock portfolios—has collapsed about 25% since January. In contrast, those in the middle and largest tercile of stock holdings have had far more modest declines of less than 10%. These patterns reflect the fact that strong asset values can cushion the pain of high prices, but only for asset owners.”
Bottom line, nothing new here but just a reminder of how uneven the US economy is.
UoM
One yr Inflation Expectations
Intentions to Buy a Home
Intentions to buy a Major Household Item
% Expecting Higher Real Income in Coming 5 yrs
