Boockvar on Consumer Confidence
From Peter Boockvar:
Consumer confidence sour/Job openings slip
The September consumer confidence index from the Conference Board fell to 81.9 from 88.6 and that was 7 pts below expectations. This is a level last seen in 2014 but when it was still accelerating post GFC. The Present Situation declined by 8 pts and the Expectations component was lower by 6 pts. A major factor in this decline, one year inflation expectations rose to 6.1% from 5.8%.
Also negatively impacting the mood, there was softness in the labor market questions. Those who think jobs are Plentiful fell to the least since 2016 not including Covid. Jobs Hard to Get rose 1.6 pts to the highest since 2016, also not considering Covid. When looking out to the coming six months, those expecting ‘more jobs’ fell almost one point to the lowest since April 2025. Expectations for income growth also weakened.
Spending intentions were down for the big tickets items such as vehicles and homes. They were mostly lower too for major appliances. Spending on services declined too. The Conference Board said, “The top five planned services spending categories were: restaurants/bars/take-out, streaming/internet/mobile services, beauty and personal care, utilities, and healthcare. Beyond the top five, consumers preferred to spend on cheap thrills and necessities. Anticipated spending for many discretionary activities moderated, including hotels for personal travel, movies, airfare, andamusement parks. Household maintenance, financial services, and historical sites/museums saw minor increases in planned spending.“
I’ll leave the bottom line to the Conference Board and not surprisingly, “Consumers’ write-in responses regarding factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September. References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs. Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated. Consumers also frequently cited politics, trade, and employment in their write-in responses, though to a lesser extent.”
Reflecting those expectations for less jobs available, August job openings shrunk to 7.079mm from 7.335mm in the month before. It was just below 7mm in March but above 7.5mm in April.
The hiring rate was 3.3%, up from 3.2% in July and vs 3.4% in June and 3.3% in May, hovering around the lowest since the early 2010’s. The quit rate was unchanged at 1.9%.
In terms of industry, what stood out was the lift in job openings for ‘information’ jobs, I’m sure AI related. On the flip side, there was a five month low in job openings for ‘professional/business services’. There was a gain in the demand for retail workers and finance/insurance but a drop in real estate/rental/leasing.
Bottom line, while the firing rate remains low, the hiring side is more selective as a variety of companies figure out how best to protect margins from the cost pressures many are facing.
Position: None
