Updating Our Table of Key Portfolio Metrics
As we get ready for the market’s reaction later this week to the Fed’s policy meeting, its updated Set of Economic Projections (SEP), and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, we are sharing an updated table of key metrics for the Pro Portfolio.
The growing view across the market and economists is the Fed will deliver a rate hike Wednesday afternoon, and our added view is the tone will be incrementally hawkish given the move in energy and other prices over the last few weeks. But we are also mindful of the impact the U.S. 10-year Treasury rate hovering near 5% can have not only on equity inflows but also hurdle rates for a variety of financing efforts.
While the current rolling GDP forecast furnished by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is at 4.4% for the current quarter, the items discussed above and others give reason to think we could see the arguably lofty S&P 500 EPS expectations for Q4 2026 and 2027 be revised lower. That means we are also once again keeping a close watch on the technical setup for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite.
With today’s market close, the S&P 500 finished just above its 50-day moving average near 7610, while the Nasdaq Composite closed the day 132 points, or 0.5% above its 50-day moving average near 26,054. For the S&P 500, if its 50-day moving average is compromised and a positive retest is not delivered, the next layer of firm support clocks in near 7503 — down 1.5% from where the S&P 500 finished today.
Should the combination of Fed policy meeting revelations and other forces lead to a wider market pullback, we want the Portfolio to be prepared. We’ve already taken our cash position to more than 13.5% of the Portfolio’s assets and that gives us some nice firepower for when the time is right, and also helps the Portfolio ride through any waves of market disruption. So too should the Portfolio’s positions with low(er) beta figures.
And that’s a pretty good transition to the updated table below. In it, you’ll find updated annual consensus EPS figures for each holding as well as refreshed relative strength index levels and beta figures. Note the EPS growth rates for Applied Materials ($AMAT), Arista Networks ($ANET), Marvell ($MRVL), Nvidia ($NVDA), Palantir ($PLTR) and a few others. And yes, we see the downtick in consensus EPS figures for Amazon ($AMZN) and Alphabet ($GOOGL). We are investigating to see if that is a technical issue or something else at play.
We’re also sharing potential pickup levels for each of the Portfolio’s positions. We do have a few disclaimers for these pickup numbers, however. They are subject to market and individual company developments, their individual technical setups as well as that for the S&P 500. As such, our pickup levels should be viewed as a guideline, not a hard and fast rule.
In terms of positions we are interested in adding to, they include shares of Axon ($AXON), Arista Networks, Boeing ($BA), Applied Materials, Marvell, and the ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF ($ROBO). Here as well, this is a list and we’ll share the same disclaimer — they are subject to market and individual company developments, their individual technical setups as well as that for the S&P 500. As such, it is possible that some, all or none of those shares are scooped up in the near-term.
We’ll be back with more tomorrow and the rest of this week. Stay tuned.
More Pro Portfolio:
- Closing Out This Position as Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise
- 26 Signals Across 9 Portfolio Themes
- Weekly Roundup: A Good Week to Lose Less as Market Stumbles
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMAT, AMZN, ANET, AXON, BA, GOOGL, MRVL, NVDA, PLTR, and ROBO.
