Month: September 2026

Source: TipRanks:

We hear daily in the business media (principally from Perma Bulls) that investors are cautious – ergo a contrarian’s view that stocks could rally over the near term.

The reality is different than the narrative expressed by many.

From the estimable Liz Ann:

According to the August @AAIISentiment Asset Allocation Survey, individual investors’ exposure to stocks climbed to 71.1% … stock allocations reached their highest level since late last year and sit well above their historical average of 61.5% pic.twitter.com/fuWBuItO5y

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 3, 2026

Positions: None.

rolf thrane

Peter Boockvar argues that inflation is stuck at 3%–4% and that there is little the Federal Reserve can do about it while the federal budget deficit remains at 7%–8% of GDP. I think he is wrong. Not about the the Fed, but about what the likely  scenario that will play out is. 

1. A deficit of 7%–8% of GDP is clearly unsustainable—not necessarily because it guarantees persistent inflation, but because the economy cannot grow fast enough to stabilize the debt burden indefinitely. The ultimate consequence will be a substantially higher tax burden , potentially approaching Scandinavian levels, without necessarily receiving Scandinavian public services in return.
2. Inflation alone does not explain the 10-year Treasury yield. Unless the market is materially raising its long-term inflation expectations—which I do not believe it is—the higher term  yield reflects rising real rates embedded in the term premium. We may simply be returning to a more normal interest-rate regime: positive real yields, a meaningful term premium and an upward-sloping yield curve—the historical norm rather than the exception.
3. Inflation of 3%–4% is consistent with the combination of deficit-financed demand, resilient aggregate spending  and or lingering supply constraints. But none of those forces are  permanent. Supply pressures should ease as wars and geopolitical disruptions eventually abate. At the same time, higher real rates should restrain demand, while a stagnant or declining workforce limits the economy’s long-term growth capacity. Real economic  growth is not sustainable at 3 percent with a declining  workforce and stagnant population- we have seen that in Europe for 2 decades and in Japan for more than 3 decades. 

Position: None

Rick Friedman

I think it’s a big waste of real and mental capital to be buying cannabis stocks every day, while shorting pretty much everything else. Once a perma bear, always a perma bear.

stockrenter

What’s the saying? You can’t see the trees from the forest.

You lose sight of the rest of the Mkt & that prevents you from seing the many other opportunities, being so laser focused & mentally invested in 1 or 2 themes. From an institutional point of view there is no real $ commitment to the Pot names, they are all single digit names and a lot of funds can’t purchase sub $5 stubs. Also they are all Liquidity traps (aka Roach motels) you can get in but don’t have the Liquidity to get out. Any $ manager in his right mind knows that and why you never will see any real WS $ come into that sector …….If you’re in them recognize that & know what you’re playing for.

Dougie Kass

Rick:

It reflects my view that few stocks/sectors meet my standard of selection. 

I am long 15 stocks and short 22 stocks in Seabreeze Partners, my hedge fund.

Moreover, I do a helluva lot of trading long and short rentals daily/ weekly –  providing a menu of opportunity.

Position: None

THE ENRON PLAYBOOK… BUT THIS TIME IT’S AI $NVDA $CRWV $MSFT $AMZN $GOOG $META

This chart from Morgan Stanley caught my attention.

Here’s what is happening in simple terms.

Imagine a new AI company wants to buy $10 billion of NVIDIA GPUs.

But that company doesn't have $10… pic.twitter.com/rGYFeqDLly

— Common Sense Investor (CSI) (@commonsenseplay) September 3, 2026

Position: None