Month: August 2026

From late yesterday afternoon:

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Revisiting the Top and a Growing List of Risks

“If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason.”

– Jack Handey

I thought quite a lot about the markets over the weekend and I revisited my mid-August column “But If, Baby, I’m The Bottom… You’re The Top!“

I concluded then and I believe stronger now, in light of the events of the last two weeks (in AI, market structure, valuation, geopolitical, interest rates, inflation, deficit/debtload, etc.) the following:

* Upside reward is dwarfed by downside risk.

* Having an outsized or even an in-line long exposure entails not only a great deal of risk — but is literally gambling (due to the risks of an uber leveraged market structure — in products and strategies).

* In general, market participants are unduly optimistic and positioned very long with limited cash reserves (as a percentage of the portfolio).

* The singular notion that since S&P EPS growth will be robust this year (+20%) so equities are undervalued is challenged by the reality of history (I didn’t get to it today but will tomorrow!).

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Position: None

I will be travelling to another funeral service early this afternoon.

I will return on Thursday morning.

Position: None

Monday evening Drukenmiller warns.

After JPM warned Friday.

And Citadel this morning.

As if an orchestrated effort to prepare for the inevitability of Bessent’s coming fiscal/monetary intervention.
🤨

“CITADEL WARNS BESSENT’S BUYBACKS COULD BACKFIRE

Citadel Securities calls… https://t.co/uyfLqx5Sep

— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) August 25, 2026

Position: None

“The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left.  Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination…If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isnt a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit.”

 – Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally.

"I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee…

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) August 24, 2026

Position: None

The S&P Short Range Oscillator is slightly overbought at 0.20% vs. -0.29%.

Position: Short SPY (VS)

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 16% below its one-month average 
– NASDAQ volume 15% below its one-month average  
– VIX index: up 4.76% to 15.85

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None