The Gospel According to Vitaliy
Position: None
Market Musings
I am not optimistic that this is the start of a bull market leg.
At the core of my concern is that interest rates will be “higher for longer.”
Interest fates are at the core of every market valuation equation.
When rates rise, the present value of stocks declines.
The yield on the long bond is now at 5.21% — that’s the highest yield in 19 years.
The risk free rate is also at the core of the equity risk premium (which is shrinking further).
The implosion of the $45 billion hedge fund (Situational Awareness) may be the tip of the iceberg — as I noted in today’s opening missive that discusses leverage in our markets and other market structure risks.
I am not yet short but if the advance continues I will be.
Position: None
Microsoft Delivers the AI Relief Investors Were Looking For
Capital spending is still rising, but margin pressure and cash flow are manageable.
Latest Earnings Move the AI Goalposts From U.S. to Asia
The market’s response to the Microsoft-Meta earnings pair and Hynix-Samsung numbers gives a clear indication.
Speaking Truth to Power
* Hear no evil speak no evil see no evil…
There was a lot of fanfare and no serious questions to Jersey Mike’s Subs ($JMKE) CEO this morning on CNBC.
But not a word that JMKE’s stock price immediately sold below the IPO price of $23 — currently at $22/share.
Position: None
My Tweet of the Day (Part Deux)
Position: None
New Microsoft Price Target After a Quarter With ‘a Lot to Like’
Here’s why we’re gladly back in this Mag 7 name.
The Situation (Part Deux)
Position: None