Examining ‘Group Stink’

Avatar photo Doug Kass on July 8, 2026

* And fading it…

I don’t own and am currently short (and have been recently short C, JPM, GS, MS, UBER, NFLX, homebuilders, etc.) some of the most consensus sectors.

I am long some of the most non-consensus sectors.

Consensus Longs:

* Memory: SanDisk ($SNDK), Micron ($MU), Intel ($INTC), AMD ($AMD), Applied Materials ($AMAT) (“it’s different this time”)

* Value Tech: Adobe ($ADBE), Oracle ($ORCL), ServiceNow ($NOW) and Nvidia ($NVDA)

* Tech With Biggest Moat: Apple ($AAPL)

* Value Industrial: Caterpillar ($CAT)

* Best Overall Value: Homebuilders

* Streaming: Netflix ($NFLX)

* Autonomous: Uber ($UBER)

* Entertainment: Disney ($DIS)

* Financials: JPMorgan ($JPM), Citigroup ($C), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Morgan Stanley ($MS) 

* Frontier Exposure “For The Long Haul”: SpaceX ($SPCX)

Non-Consensus Longs:

* Cannabis: $MSOS, $VRNOD, $TRLV, $GTBIF, $GLAS

* Private Equity: Apollo ($APO), Blackstone ($BX), KKR ($KKR)

* Consumer Staples: Kimberly-Clark ($KMB), PepsiCo ($PEP), Procter & Gamble ($PG)

Positions:

Long MSOS (L), VRNOD (S), TRLV (S), GTIBF (S), GLAS (S), APO (S), BX (S), KKR (S), KMB (S), PEP (S), PG (S)

Short SPCX (VS), SNDK (VS), MU (VS), INTC (VS), AMAT (VS), AMD (VS), CAT (VS)

 

Boockvar on the 10-Year Auction

Avatar photo Doug Kass on July 8, 2026

From Peter Boockvar:

Very good 10 yr note auction

The 10 yr note auction was very good. The yield of 4.580% was just below the when issued pricing of 4.586%. The bid to cover of 2.59 was above the previous one year average of 2.49 and the best since last September. Also of note, dealers got stuck with the least amount of a 10 year auction since January with direct and indirect bidders taking the most since then.

Bottom line, while auction results really only have an impact on the market the day of the issuance, it’s very likely that buyers took advantage of a 10 yr yield that is nearing its Middle East conflict high and not far from the highest since January 2025.

With respect to the reaction in the TIPS market to today’s rise in oil prices, the 10 yr inflation breakeven is unchanged at 2.26% and the 5 yr is flat as well at 2.32%. It’s the shorter end that is responding more with the 2 yr breakeven up 6 bps to 2.10%

10 yr Yield 

10 yr Inflation Breakeven

Position: None

More on Cannabis

Avatar photo Doug Kass on July 8, 2026

Position: None

As Seen On ‘Halftime’

Avatar photo Doug Kass on July 8, 2026

* On Apple’s margins and Micron’s average price realizations… you can’t have it both ways!

Wait, the same panelists who own Micron ($MU) because “it’s different this time” are now arguing that the pressure from Micron’s high memory prices will be fleeting (so Apple’s ($AAPL) margins will mean revert higher as memory prices “normalize”)?

That doesn’t compute and the arguments are not consistent.

Position: Short MU (VS)

More Tales From Nvidia: Did the AI Bubble Just Pop? (Issue #215!) 

Avatar photo Doug Kass on July 8, 2026

See this tweet:

But, more importantly, the subtweet under it:

I think that is the leading indicator. Although I would modify the subtweet a bit.  

This also means the revenue growth is flattening. The spike we had that really kicked off this last rally was artificial. It was unsustainable tokenmaxxing (and apparently Anthropic also had a big 1x pull in of revenue in Q3, if I remember correctly). The consumer quickly found out they were doing the opposite of gaining productivity, they were costing themselves more money than the humans they had.  

So it has been stopped. Then the biz also started shifting to China/Open Source as well. A double whammy. 

No wonder SpaceX ($SPCX) and Meta ($META) are selling excess capacity all of the sudden…  and why Blackstone ($BX) is rumored to be stopping data center projects, for example. 

Position: Long BX (S); Short SPCX (VS)