Month: July 2026

I covered my Index shorts for a quick and substantial gain:

SPY  $749.63

QQQ $717.82

Positions: None.

@TheStreetPro

The CNBC Panelists Said What? (Issue #10)

This one I can't make up.

IBM's shares are trading down by -$70/share in premarket trading this morning after the company issued a disappointing earnings report. This represents more than a -24% decline which would be…

— Dougie Kass (@DougKass) July 14, 2026

Positions: None.

From Peter Boockvar:

The CPI rundown/rate hike odds

After a .5% rise in headline CPI in May, it fell by .4% in June which was more than the anticipated drop of one tenth. The core rate too was under the estimate with no m/o/m change vs the estimate of up .2%. Versus last year, prices rose 3.5% headline and 2.6% core vs 4.2% and 2.9% respectively in May. CPI ex food, energy and shelter fell by one tenth m/o/m but up 2.1% y/o/y. As housing is the largest expense for most people, I’m not a fan of this level of parsing.

After the large run higher in the prior months, energy prices fell back by 5.7% in the month, though still up 15.7% y/o/y with gasoline prices in particular up by 27% y/o/y. Food prices grew by .2% m/o/m and 3% y/o/y. ‘Food at home’ prices were up by .2% m/o/m and 2.7% y/o/y. ‘Food away from home’ saw prices up .2% m/o/m and 3.4% y/o/y.

Keeping a lid on the core rate was no change in services inflation ex energy m/o/m, though still up 3.2% y/o/y. Owners Equivalent Rent cooled a touch to a .2% rise m/o/m and by 3.3% y/o/y. ‘Rent of Primary Residence’ was up .1% m/o/m and 2.8% y/o/y, getting closer to reality. Medical care costs fell one tenth m/o/m and up just 2% y/o/y which is not close to the reality on the ground, particularly with health insurance. Explain this to me, health insurance costs fell 7.4% y/o/y and by .5% m/o/m. It’s because the BLS is measuring profit margins of health insurers rather than what policies are actually being priced at. Airline fares were little changed, up by .2% m/o/m, but after a big jump in the prior months. They are up 26.5% y/o/y. It’s still expensive to fix a car with ‘maintenance’ prices up by 1.1% in the month and by 7% y/o/y. Auto insurance prices fell 2% m/o/m and 4.1% y/o/y, finally getting some price help here.

Core goods prices fell one tenth m/o/m and up .8% y/o/y. Car prices remain a key factor in the muted change. Used car prices fell .2% m/o/m and by 1.8% y/o/y. New vehicle prices were flat after two months of declines and up just .5% y/o/y. Apparel prices, after a string of gains, fell by .6% m/o/m but up 3.9% y/o/y. The prices of ‘household furnishings and supplies’ fell by one tenth m/o/m but up 1.3% y/o/y.

Reflecting higher component costs, ‘computer software and accessories’ saw prices jumped 2.3% in the month and by 17.4% y/o/y. On the other hand, ‘computers/peripherals/smart home assistants’, saw prices down .7% m/o/m and by .8% y/o/y.

Bottom line, quite the relief with the core rate (as headline will tick up again if the rise in energy prices is sustained), particularly with rents and medical care (distorted as stated) but I will say again, the complete picture only comes after the PPI details are released yesterday. Yields are getting relief too as the 2 yr yield is down 6 bps post report. The 10 yr yield is down 2.5 bps and the 30 yr yield is lower by 1 bps post number. The US dollar is weaker in response.

With respect to market pricing on rates, the odds of a hike are down to just 16% at the July meeting from 50% as of yesterday’s close after Waller’s comments. I do not think the Fed does anything in the meeting’s to come and are inclined to wait for the results of the task force. By year end, the fed funds futures are still pricing in a 100% chance of a hike and and 28% of a second.

With regards to Kevin Warsh, in his prepared testimony, he said this of note, “The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation. And we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability.”

“If we get policy right – and we will – the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.” Unfortunately for the Fed on this, the level of government spending is a key factor on inflation and with a budget deficit at 5.6% of GDP, it makes it tough to get back to 2% sustainably.

Core CPI y/o/y

Positions: None.

Upside:

-TSEM +19% (expands 300mm Silicon Photonics, Silicon Germanium and advanced packaging capacity in Japan; provides FY28 financial targets)

-CLSK +15% (secures 20-year NNN lease for Sandersville data center with undisclosed global technology company)

-CRMT +5.3% (earnings, color)

-SNDK +4.2% (chip stock strength)

-MU +3.4% (chip stock strength)

-GS +2.7% (earnings, color)

Downside:

-IBM -23% (weakness following Q2 pre-announcement)

-VIRT -10% (guidance, reports prelim Q2)

-HCA -9.2% (guides Q2, cuts FY guidance)

-FIVN -5.3% (downside momentum)

-SAP -5.3% (lower in sympathy with IBM)

-JPM -3.0% (earnings, guidance)

-WFC -2.1% (earnings, guidance)

Positions: None

* He doesn’t comment on the outlook for interest rates…

– Fed has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation- Reiterates pledge to get inflation down

– U.S. labor market appears broadly stable

– Fed’s number one objective is to get policy right

– We are seeing relatively few layoffs

– “I think inflation comes about when the government prints too much — by which I mean the central bank, and broadly speaking the government spends too much.”

– “Inflation is the Fed’s choice.”

Positions: None

Positions: None.