Month: July 2026

SK Hynix missed consensus by 6% for CQ2 rev & operating profits while guiding FY26 capex 11% below. While I have outlined before my case for a near-term AI “speedbump” (which can still be quite ugly like in late 1995/97 for internet buildout,) this is certainly ammo for THE TOP.

— Dan Niles (@DanielTNiles) July 29, 2026

Position: None

SK Hijinx call has something for bears and bulls: demand great, capacity additions, great. I mean this thing is all over the place. And so is the stock. We have news reports calling the quarter amazing and others calling it disappointing. And this is the most important stock out…

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) July 29, 2026

Position: None

* One of my primary surprises for 2026 expected strong outperformance in consumer staples…

Surprise #3: The AI economy and (a heavily weighted and imbalanced) stock market dependent on AI show signs of interruption, then disruption

The AI bubble bursts as the circular financing deals unwind (or are pushed out) — AI capital spending slows abruptly as return on investment concerns emerge as power generation and grid modernization are bottlenecks. Depreciation charges and lower demand wrecks havoc with consensus AI 2026-27 earnings per share expectations. Another big AI surprise would be if China decides to flood markets with inexpensive AI models — pressuring the ultimate and expected robust ROI forecasts (which are already in question by some skeptics).

OpenAI’s Sam Altman finds a place to live right next door to Sam Bankman-Fried. His effort to make OpenAI too big to fail, fails. ChatGPT turns out to at best be a commodity large language model purveyor. It becomes obvious to all that its recent $500 billion-plus valuation can’t be supported. Without an ability to do a down round without losing face, OpenAI loses all access to capital. Ultimately, a consortium of its customers and suppliers takes it over to modify its business plan and reduce the cash burn.

With Altman tossed to the curb (or worse), the prosecutions begin.

OpenAI’s problems pushes a deeply committed (to OpenAI) Softbank to the verge of collapse.

Nvidia shares fall by -40% as CoreWeave (CRWV) is driven into bankruptcy.

A basket of defensive consumer nondurable equities ( (PEP) , (KO) , (PG) and (KMB) ) materially outperform the Mag 7 by a decisive amount.

The shares of (boring and previously hapless) PepsiCo outperform most other staples and 90% of the S&P Index after a much better skein of organic unit growth and as its core business is rationalized.

– Kass, 10 Surprises for 2026 

Coca-Cola $KO jumped by 5% on Tuesday, its best day since 2020 📈 📈 pic.twitter.com/JxzOAnXRSF

— Barchart (@Barchart) July 29, 2026

Position: Long KO (S)

The S&P Short Range Oscillator stands nearly at exactly neutral at -0.07% vs. -0.33%.

Position: None

 

* Though markets have been generally unfazed the ERP has been a constant cause of concern to me…

🇺🇸Risk

The US Equity Risk Indicator is at a level that has historically pointed to weakness over the short to intermediate term. But markets can stay stretched far longer than logic suggests, then break down much faster than anyone expects
👉https://t.co/blMxcoFA78@bcaresearch pic.twitter.com/hfyfQ38R5h

— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) July 29, 2026

Position: None

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None